Welcome to our fifth installment of the Sporting News’ NBA Prop-A-Shot series, where we unveil our favorite prop bets every Wednesday night before following all of the action live and providing up-to-the-minute betting advice. What’s on tap tonight? We’ll be covering Scottie Barnes and the Raptors against Jimmy Butler and the Heat in Toronto (7:30 p.m. ET, FUBO/NBA League Pass).
Here’s how our NBA Prop-A-Shot series works:
- On Wednesday morning and throughout the day, we share our top prop bets and hand-picked wagers for the upcoming evening.
- During the live window — from the opening tip to the final whistle — we’ll follow our picks, surface any noteworthy lines, AND detail the angles and opportunities we look for in the live betting market.
- At the end of the night, we will follow up on each bet, discuss which of our wagers hit and which missed, and go over any major storylines, bad beats, or otherwise surprising developments within the game that may have shaken up the betting world.
This is a great chance for you to uncover new wagering strategies before and during an NBA game, and see what kind of interesting moneyline, spread, and over/under developments take place throughout the course of the night. Whether you’re thinking about dabbling in betting for the first time or you’re a seasoned bettor looking to sharpen your edge, we’ve got you covered!
Remember to check back throughout the day, and then join us all game long this evening for updates, live value betting opportunities, and all the betting results as the games conclude. Bet like an analyst for the night! We’re 39-26 since Prop-A-Shot launched (.600) and looking to boost our hump-day bankroll even more tonight!
Good luck, have fun, and as always, may the odds be forever in your favor!
Raptors vs. Heat player props, best bets
All odds courtesy of BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.
Heat -2.5 vs. Raptors (-105)
We usually start with player props right off the jump, but nothing’s stopping us from betting some game props, spreads, or over/unders. We love the value we’re getting with Miami -2.5 on the road, where Erik Spoelstra’s squad is quietly 12-9 on the season and looking for its fourth straight W.
Toronto has engaged in a full retooling period, with team president Masai Ujiri and GM Bobby Webster focusing on building around third-year franchise cornerstone Scottie Barnes. The Raps already traded O.G. Anunoby for Immanuel Quickley and R.J. Barrett, and now Siakam could be headed to the Pacers for Bruce Brown and a bevy of picks. These moves should benefit Toronto greatly in the long run, but in the short-term things could stay ugly for a while.
MORE: Latest updates on Pascal Siakam trade rumors
Toronto has lost four straight games and five of its past eight, and Darko Rajaković’s squad is still getting used to its new rotation. Big man Jakob Poeltl is also dealing with an ankle injury that could sideline him for multiple weeks, joining Gary Trent Jr. (illness), Otto Porter (knee), Christian Koloko (illness), and Gradey Dick (thumb) on the Raps’ injury report. Oh, and Toronto just finished a brutal stretch, having played 10 games out of 12 on the road between Dec. 22 and Jan. 12.
Tyler Herro three-pointers: OVER 3.5 (+115)
We not only like the road favorites to cover — we also like them to splash a bunch of three-pointers in the process. Toronto has allowed opponents to shoot a collective 38.8 percent from three-point land this season, and the Raps’ past three opponents have combined to shoot 44.8 percent from deep. Those numbers alone should have Herro licking his chops.
Quietly leading the Heat in per-game scoring (22.7), Herro never met a bad defense he didn’t love to exploit. He’s shooting over 41 percent from long range on the season, and he’s hit at least four triples in two straight games and five of his past seven. We’re banking on the former Sixth Man of the Year to keep the good times rolling from deep tonight.
Pascal Siakam rebounds: UNDER 6.5 (-150)
Who cares about a little juice — this is practically a lock. Spicy P has pulled down fewer than seven rebounds in five straight games and nine of his past 10, and now he’s either the subject of trade rumors or literally about to be shipped away.
MORE: Why Siakam would be a perfect fit with the Pacers
If he does play, Siakam’s not going to suddenly bang down low with Bam Adebayo and company, the same crew that held him to four boards earlier this season. If he doesn’t play, you get your money back. Smash the UNDER — we’ll always take a profit of $13.33 on a $20 wager that we view as a stone-cold lock.
Bam Adebayo rebounds: OVER 12.5 (-105)
Bam should dominate his minutes down low against the feeble front court of the Raptors, and we like him to hit this OVER even if garbage time comes into play during the second half. With Jakob Poeltl, Christian Koloko, and Otto Porter all hurt, Adebayo will be squaring off with the likes of Jontay Porter, Thaddeus Young, and Chris Boucher. That’s weak sauce. Bam grabbed 20 boards in Miami’s one-point win in Brooklyn on Monday, and he has three 15-plus rebound games since Christmas. Expect him to pull down 13-plus tonight, padding his stats for the home stretch of All-Star voting.
Scottie Barnes points + rebounds
No odds for Barnesy so far, but we’ll keep you updated throughout the day as we like the Raptors’ franchise player to easily put together a 25-point, 11-rebound double-double against the Heat this evening. He has been crashing the boards like a man possessed as of late, and he obviously has the green light to shoot whenever he touches the ball. It doesn’t need to be pretty to make us money — we just need BetMGM to put up some Barnes props!