Welcome to our fifth installment of the Sporting News’ NBA Prop-A-Shot series, where we unveil our favorite prop bets every Wednesday night before following all of the action live and providing up-to-the-minute betting advice. What’s on tap tonight? We’ll be covering Scottie Barnes and the Raptors against Jimmy Butler and the Heat in Toronto (7:30 p.m. ET, FUBO/NBA League Pass).
Here’s how our NBA Prop-A-Shot series works:
- On Wednesday morning and throughout the day, we share our top prop bets and hand-picked wagers for the upcoming evening.
- During the live window — from the opening tip to the final whistle — we’ll follow our picks, surface any noteworthy lines, AND detail the angles and opportunities we look for in the live betting market.
- At the end of the night, we will follow up on each bet, discuss which of our wagers hit and which missed, and go over any major storylines, bad beats, or otherwise surprising developments within the game that may have shaken up the betting world.
This is a great chance for you to uncover new wagering strategies before and during an NBA game, and see what kind of interesting moneyline, spread, and over/under developments take place throughout the course of the night. Whether you’re thinking about dabbling in betting for the first time or you’re a seasoned bettor looking to sharpen your edge, we’ve got you covered!
Remember to check back throughout the day, and then join us all game long this evening for updates, live value betting opportunities, and all the betting results as the games conclude. Bet like an analyst for the night! We’re 39-26 since Prop-A-Shot launched (.600) and looking to boost our hump-day bankroll even more tonight!
Good luck, have fun, and as always, may the odds be forever in your favor!
Raptors vs. Heat live score updates
| Quarter | Line score | Live moneylines | Live over/under | Score |
| Pregame | Heat -1.5 | MIA -155 | 225.5 (O/U -110) | 0 – 0 |
| End 1st | Raptors -11.5 | TOR -750 | 230.5 (O/U -110) | TOR 41-18 |
| End 2nd | Raptors -26.5 | Off the board | 229.5 (O -125/U -105) | TOR 78-43 |
| End 3rd | Raptors -12.5 | TOR -10000 | 219.5 (O/U -110) | TOR 94-73 |
| 6:00 4th | Raptors -15.5 | Off the board | 219.5 (O/U -110) | TOR 106-90 |
| 2:00 4th |
Raptors vs. Heat live betting advice, player props, strategy
- 7:20 p.m. ET: We just witnessed the line move from Heat -2.5 to Heat -3.5, and we can’t believe it hasn’t jumped up to -4.5 by now. With Pascal Siakam gone, Bruce Brown not yet an active Raptor, and Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro active for the Heat while multiple Raps are hurt, -3.5 seems like great game time value.
- 7:35 p.m.: Here’s the Raptors’ starting lineup: Quickley, Barrett, Trent, Barnes, and Porter. Jontay Porter is the real sore thumb here, and we’re doubling down on our Bam Adebayo action. You can get Bam at -145 to make his first field goal attempt, -120 to go OVER 12.5 rebounds, and +155 to swat OVER 1.5 blocks. We’re not touching his 22.5-point scoring OVER at -120. Too much risk of garbage time.
Tonight’s Starting Five ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/ujhQ30RAq7
— Toronto Raptors (@Raptors) January 18, 2024
- 7:44 p.m.: A minute and a half into the post-Siakam world north of the border, the Raptors are still crashing the boards and getting up the floor quickly (or should we say, Quickley?). We’re also noticing the Heat swarming Barnes with double-teams almost every time he’s within the three-point arc. There might be some fringe value on Barnes’ OVER of 5.5 assists at +115. He’s definitely hitting our pregame points + rebounds OVER of 28.5, though. He already has multiple boards and a basket.
- 7:50 p.m.: Heat coach Erik Spoelstra has to burn his first timeout with Miami trailing 13-2. Quickley is shooting lights-out and the Heat look a little sleepy on defense and on fast breaks. The live line has changed to Toronto -2.5. We’re not biting three minutes in.
- 7:56 p.m.: It’s 22-15 Toronto just after the halfway mark of the first. IQ has 10 points and his live over/under is a massive 27.5 points (O -105/U -135). C’mon, the Heat aren’t letting Quickley flirt with 30. Hit the UNDER.
- 8:07 p.m.: In what just felt like a blink, the Raptors just turned a 22-15 lead into a 41-18 lead. Toronto is now -11.5 with a -750 live moneyline, which translates to an 88 percent win probability. We’re bullish — we’re taking Miami +11.5.
- 8:13 p.m.: Did the Heat get bottomless mimosas at a Toronto bar pregame? They look lost out there. No defense, no offense, brick city, pitiful rebounding. IQ, Barrett, and Barnes have combined for 26. Miami is shooting 28 percent and has missed 10 straight shots. It’s 47-18 with 10:00 left in the half. I should have never changed from Toronto +2.5 after the P trade earlier today.
- 8:23 p.m.: The Heat are starting to show a little life on transition — they just made baskets on three straight offensive possessions — but they still need to lock it up defensively. You can get Miami at +22.5 right now (+110). That’s pretty good value just for garbage time. Toronto can’t sustain 64 percent shooting and 74 percent from long range. Twenty-one assists on 23 made shots.
- 8:30 p.m.: 72-37 Toronto with 3:00 left. The garbage time will come! Toronto welcomes the Bulls tomorrow for the tail end of a back-to-back. Still Raps -22.5.
- 8:41 p.m.: We’re betting the UNDER (229.5). The Raptors can’t possibly keep shooting like they’re on fire in NBA Jam, and they will probably send in the reserves sooner than later with another game tomorrow. And Miami already looked defeated in the first half.
- 8:49 p.m.: That first half was a MasterClass by the Raptors — 22 assists, two turnovers. Shooting splits of 60.4/63.6/85.7. WHAT!?
- 8:58 p.m.: 82-55 Raptors. The Heat have a pulse! This could get interesting, for sure. Line’s moved down to -20.5 now.
- 9:12 p.m.: Every time the Heat look like they’re battling to make things interesting, the Raps respond. Barnes era Toronto is gonna be fun. 91-67 Raps. Live UNDER is 222.5 now. Good thing we locked in the UNDER of 229.5 at the half.
- 9:23 p.m.: 96-83 Raptors! Loving the fight from the Heat here!
- 9:28 p.m.:
- 9:31 p.m.:
Raptors vs. Heat: Pregame player props, best bets
All odds courtesy of BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.
Heat -2.5 vs. Raptors (-105)
We usually start with player props right off the jump, but nothing’s stopping us from betting some game props, spreads, or over/unders. We love the value we’re getting with Miami -2.5 on the road, where Erik Spoelstra’s squad is quietly 12-9 on the season and looking for its fourth straight W.
Toronto has engaged in a full retooling period, with team president Masai Ujiri and GM Bobby Webster focusing on building around third-year franchise cornerstone Scottie Barnes. The Raps already traded O.G. Anunoby for Immanuel Quickley and R.J. Barrett, and now Siakam could be headed to the Pacers for Bruce Brown and a bevy of picks. These moves should benefit Toronto greatly in the long run, but in the short-term things could stay ugly for a while.
MORE: Pascal Siakam trade grade
Toronto has lost four straight games and five of its past eight, and Darko Rajaković’s squad is still getting used to its new rotation. Big man Jakob Poeltl is also dealing with an ankle injury that could sideline him for multiple weeks, joining Otto Porter (knee), Christian Koloko (illness), and Gradey Dick (thumb) on the Raps’ injury report. Oh, and Toronto just finished a brutal stretch, having played 10 games out of 12 on the road between Dec. 22 and Jan. 12.
Scottie Barnes points + rebounds: OVER 28.5 (-110)
The Pascal Siakam trade leaves the keys to the Raptors’ kingdom almost completely in the hands of Barnes, who Rajaković and many other officials in Toronto believe is the future face of the NBA.
Barnes has been rebounding like a man possessed lately — he had 13 boards against Boston on Monday and seven last week against the Clippers — and we also know he has the green light to take whatever shot he wants as the guy north of the border.
Spicy P’s departure vacated 16 field goal attempts per game, which can’t possibly all go to newcomers Quickley, Barrett, and Bruce Brown. And since Brown won’t even be suiting up for tonight’s game as the Siakam swap just finalized, we expect Barnesy to go off tonight.
Tyler Herro three-pointers: OVER 3.5 (+115)
We not only like the road favorites to cover — we also like them to splash a bunch of three-pointers in the process. Toronto has allowed opponents to shoot a collective 38.8 percent from three-point land this season, and the Raps’ past three opponents have combined to shoot 44.8 percent from deep. Those numbers alone should have Herro licking his chops.
Quietly leading the Heat in per-game scoring (22.7), Herro never met a bad defense he didn’t love to exploit. He’s shooting over 41 percent from long range on the season, and he’s hit at least four triples in two straight games and five of his past seven. We’re banking on the former Sixth Man of the Year to keep the good times rolling from deep tonight.
Pascal Siakam rebounds: UNDER 6.5 (-150)
Siakam has been traded to the Pacers as of Wednesday afternoon, so he will no longer be participating in this game. Too bad — we loved the value on this UNDER!
MORE: Why Siakam is a perfect fit with the Pacers
Bam Adebayo rebounds: OVER 12.5 (-105)
Bam should dominate his minutes down low against the feeble front court of the Raptors, and we like him to hit this OVER even if garbage time comes into play during the second half. With Jakob Poeltl, Christian Koloko, and Otto Porter all hurt, Adebayo will be squaring off with the likes of Jontay Porter, Thaddeus Young, and Chris Boucher. That’s weak sauce.
Bam grabbed 20 boards in Miami’s one-point win in Brooklyn on Monday, and he has three 15-plus rebound games since Christmas. Expect him to pull down 13-plus tonight, padding his stats for the home stretch of All-Star voting.