So many matches to choose from on a Saturday with action all over the globe. We have best bets from Spain and Italy to start.
While everyone is looking ahead to No. 1 vs. No. 2 when Real Madrid and Barcelona go head-to-head, there’s a tasty No. 3 vs. No. 4 matchup on Saturday when Athletic Club hosts Atletico Madrid. Our best bet points out why one team has the edge in this one.
In Italy there are only three matches on Saturday and one of them could see Atalanta go top of the league with a home win against the 9th-place side. It’s a match they’ll be expected to win, but our pick isn’t banking on that being the case.
Check out all our picks below.
MORE: The Sporting News soccer betting guide
Athletic Club vs. Atletico Madrid best bet, prediction
- Best Bet: Athletic Club to win
- Odds: +145 (Caesars)
- Prediction (Win/Draw): Athletic Club
Both these teams are challenging for a Champions League place, a competition which Athletic Bilbao haven’t seen since 2015. They are, however, legitimate contenders.
The one-two punch of Alex Berenguer and Inaki Williams up front has proven devastating, and they have conceded over 1.0 xGA to just two of their first seven league opponents. They’ve gotten the best of Atletico Madrid in recent matches, winning three and drawing one over the last four. — Kyle Bonn
Atalanta vs. Sassuolo best bet, prediction
- Best Bet: Sassuolo double chance
- Odds: +118 (Caesars)
- Prediction (Win/Draw): Draw
While Atalanta sit second in the Serie A table, they have been skating along in the Italian top flight thanks to a good bit of luck. They’ve outscored their expected goals by 1.11, and opponents have undershot their expected goals by an enormous 4.52.
If that’s ever going to come good, it’s against a solid Sassuolo side that has been picked apart by some of the top sides in Serie A but can also find goals on their day. With Hans Hateboer suspended, Duvan Zapata still not yet back from injury, and Juan Musso still sidelined, this Atalanta team could be there for the taking. — Kyle Bonn
Leicester City vs Crystal Palace best bet, prediction
- Best Bet: Crystal Palace draw no bet
- Odds: +115 (Caesars)
- Prediction (Win/Draw): Crystal Palace
We’re not trying to pile on last-place Leicester City here, but this will not be a good matchup for them. Palace are a strong transition team with attackers who can cause chaos with their one-on-one ability against a Leicester defense that’s having a tough enough time stopping teams as it is.
Palace have scored in three of their four away matches and still registered a 1.1 xG in their lone blanking (at Newcastle). Leicester are a better team at home, but that’s not saying much. Their 1W-2L-1D record features three matches in which they generated fewer expected goals than their opponent. The one win? 4-0 against Nottingham Forest on just 1.1 xG per FBRef.
What should be a major flag for any Leicester City backers out there: The Foxes have the worst differential in the league between actual goals allowed (24) and post-shot expected goals (17.2) with the latter figure accounting for the likelihood of a ‘keeper to save the specific shot taken. That’s a sign of poor goalkeeping from Danny Ward who has only compounded the defensive issues in front of him. And now Ward gets set to face the Premier League team that puts the highest percentage of their shots on target. — Simon Borg
Werder Bremen vs Mainz best bet, prediction
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 total goals
- Odds: -135 (Caesars)
- Prediction (Win/Draw): Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen are one of the stories of the season, but they’re overperforming their expected goals and they are due for some negative regression (they’ve scored 20 goals on 13.4 expected goals). For that reason we’ll stay away from picking a side in this game, although Werder are clearly a team in good form and Mainz is not (winless in four).
Instead, we’ll focus on the total because we should see goals in this one. Werder’s forwards are clicking, and Mainz have the sixth-best road xG so far in the Bundesliga despite the finishing quality not always being there. (Mainz’s Karim Onisiwo is the team’s leading scorer with three goals, while last year’s top scorer Jonathan Burkardt is still goal-less on the season.)
On the other end of the field, when it comes to goals allowed and expected goals allowed, both teams are in the middle of the pack. So it’s no surprise that the two sides have only recorded a combined three shutouts in the 18 matches they have played so far (nine each).
Bolstering the case for the over: Only one of Mainz’s five away games (at Gladbach) has finished under 2.5 goals, and one of Werder’s four home games (vs. Augsburg). Small sample size, but they line up with other numbers. — Simon Borg
Yesterday’s picks
We were one goal away from a perfect day. The Colon-Racing match in Argentina needed another goal for Kyle’s parlay to hit. It was looking good when Racing scored two goals in a four-minute span in the second half, but with about 20 minutes to go neither team could find one final tally.
Jonathan David’s goalscoring prowess — he leads Ligue 1 with nine goals — helped Lille register a win at Strasbourg, while some fine goalkeeping by Brentford’s Spanish ‘keeper David Raya kept the Premier League’s first match under 2.5 goals.
| Picks | ✔️ or ❌ |
|---|---|
| Lille to win (moneyline) (Bonn, +145) |
✔️ |
| Racing win + Over 2.5 goals (Bonn, +320) |
❌ |
| Brentford-Brighton Under 2.5 goals (Borg, -120) |
✔️ |
Soccer best bets records
Records below compiled since the first edition of this post on Monday, October 3.
| Kyle Bonn | Simon Borg | |
|---|---|---|
| Best Bets (Won-Lost-Push) |
39.3% (11-17-0) |
34.8% (8-15-0) |
| Total Units (+ Won / – Lost) |
-1.09 | -6.19 |
| Match Predictions (Correct picks) |
61.5% (16 of 26) |
56.5% (13 of 23) |