The hardest part of any NFL general manager’s job is trying to nail the draft. Figuring out which NFL Draft picks are going to boom and which will bust is difficult. The importance of these critical decisions leads general managers to stick to their own personal draft boards, consensus be damned, to try to find hidden talents.
As a result, there are often at least a handful of poor value picks that deviate enough from consensus player rankings. That doesn’t mean that a player picked too early will be bad; some reaches turn out to be excellent selections the same way that late-round values do.
Still, there is a price to pay for that gamble. It comes in the form of short-term criticism about selecting a player well ahead of where they were projected to go.
The 2022 NFL Draft was a great example of this. In a more uncertain draft class, general managers stuck firmly to their board, and that led to some head-scratching picks in the first few rounds. The Sporting News will break down what some of the most egregious reaches were by looking at the players selected compared to the consensus big boards compiled by The Athletic, the NFL Mock Draft Database and pre-draft player grades from ESPN.
It will be hard to consider any pick beyond the third round a reach in this year’s weaker draft class, so here’s a look at the biggest reaches of the 2022 NFL Draft.
TSN’s NFL DRAFT HQ
Live picks tracker | 7-round mock draft | Top 200 big board
Packers: Quay Walker, LB, Georgia
- Round 1, Pick 22
The Packers were expected to take a receiver in the first round, but when Jahan Dotson went 16th overall and Treylon Burks went 18th, there were no pass-catchers left at 22 that were worth drafting. As such, they pivoted and took Quay Walker.
Walker got plenty of draft-week buzz that led him to be a common first-round pick in mock drafts. He ended up being the first linebacker off the board, going ahead of three-down playmaker Devin Lloyd from Utah and Walker’s athletic Georgia teammate Nakobe Dean.
Walker has the tools needed to be an NFL linebacker, but there’s no denying that he was a bit of a reach. He ranked 49th and 51st on the two consensus big boards and only rose to the first-round level late during the draft process. It will be interesting to see how his career compares to that of Dean, who shockingly went 61 picks later than him.
Patriots: Cole Strange, G, Chattanooga
- Round 1, Pick 29
This was the collective first-round pick that made everyone watching the draft shout, “WHO!?” Strange was an FCS prospect who spent six years at Chattanooga and was a five-year starter for the Mocs. He looked like a prime sleeper candidate during the 2022 draft and was getting buzz as a late-second to early-third-round pick.
But as a first-round pick? That’s a reach. Strange came in at 76th overall on The Athletic’s consensus big board and 86th on that of the Mock Draft Database. He was ESPN’s 77th-graded player in the draft, and it certainly seems like the Patriots could have gotten him with their second-round pick.
Strange could follow in the footsteps of Cowboys center Travis Frederick, who was considered a big reach when Dallas took him in the first round of the 2013 NFL Draft but developed into an All-Pro talent. Even still, New England took Strange way too early.
How bad was it? Sean McVay and the Rams’ brain trust laughed when they saw Strange was selected. He also said that the Rams looked at Strange as an opportunity with the 104th pick. So, the Patriots jumped the gun by making, shall we say, a strange first-round pick.
Giants: Wan’Dale Robinson, WR, Kentucky
- Round 2, Pick 43
The Giants are reportedly looking to trade 2021 first-round pick Kadarius Toney, so Robinson could end up being a replacement for him. Robinson is a Swiss Army Knife tool who spent the early stages of his college career at Nebraska before transferring to Kentucky. He played both receiver and running back for the Cornhuskers while serving more as a receiver with the Wildcats.
Robinson racked up 104 catches, 1,334 yards and seven touchdowns during his lone season at Kentucky. He’s a dynamic, explosive playmaker, but he’s only 5-8, 178 pounds. That could be a concern for him against bigger, faster and stronger NFL defenders.
Robinson’s size was enough for the consensus big boards to rate him at 84 and 91 respectively. Taking him in the middle of Round 2 is a reach, but it’s one with a lot of upside for the Giants’ offense.
BENDER: Winners & losers from Day 2 of the 2022 NFL Draft
Lions: Josh Paschal, DE, Kentucky
- Round 2, Pick 46
Paschal was a solid defensive lineman at Kentucky. He racked up 13 sacks during his five-year playing career and totaled five sacks during his final season with the Wildcats. Still, many viewed him as more of a third-round talent, as he rated 68th and 70th across consensus big boards.
That said, some were significantly lower on Paschal than those big boards. For example, The 33rd Team — a website founded by former NFL GMs Mike Tannebaum and Joe Banner — had Paschal as their 138th rated player. So, it would seem that the Lions made a bit of a reach, especially with consensus top-25 prospect Nakobe Dean still on the board.
Dan Campbell and the Lions won’t mind, especially if Paschal can turn into the kneecap-biter that he wants on the defensive line.
Saints: Alontae Taylor, CB, Tennessee
- Round 2, Pick 49
The Saints certainly have a type at cornerback. Taylor has a 6-0, 199-pound frame and ran a 4.36 40-yard dash at the combine. That’s the exact same time that Marshon Lattimore ran when he measured at 6-0, 193 pounds in 2017. So, Taylor has some nice measurables and could become a solid starter.
That said, Taylor was ESPN’s 109th rated player in the 2022 NFL Draft class, and the consensus big boards had him rated no higher than 98th. The Saints probably could have gotten him later and didn’t need to use a top-50 pick on him. He was a late riser thanks to his length and athleticism, but it still feels like a reach.
Patriots: Tyquan Thornton, WR, Baylor
- Round 2, Pick 50
Thornton is one of the fastest players in the 2022 NFL Draft. He blazed a 4.28 40-yard dash at the 2022 NFL Combine which was slower than only his teammate, Kalon Barnes. The Patriots needed speed, as the Nelson Agholor signing has only returned middling results, so in that sense, Thornton is a fit.
However, Thornton ranked 146th and 155th on the two consensus big boards. He was ESPN’s 117th-graded prospect and checked in at 154 on Sporting News’ top 200 big board. So, needless to say, he is a risky pick.
Thornton has 6-2 size and recorded 62 catches for 948 yards and 10 touchdowns during his last season at Baylor. So, he has the tools needed to succeed. However, he’s raw, so Bill Belichick and Co. will have to coach him up. That’s not something that Belichick has done well with receiver draft picks in the past.
MORE: Why did Malik Willis fall in the 2022 NFL Draft?
Giants: Josh Ezeudu, G, UNC
- Round 3, Pick 67
Ezeudu has good size at 6-4, 308 pounds, but he needs to clean up his technique at the NFL level. The Giants selected him more than 100 picks ahead of where he was ranked on each consensus big board, as he ranked 169 and 177 on them respectively. He could pan out, but he projected more as a backup player and will be a project.
Bears: Velus Jones Jr., WR, Tennessee
- Round 3, Pick 71
There’s no doubting Jones’ speed. He clocked a 4.31 40-yard dash at the combine and showed well in the receiver drills. However, he had just one productive season as a wideout during his six-year college career, posting 62 catches for 807 yards and seven touchdowns as a sixth-year senior.
Jones is a good return man, so he has value on special teams, but he lacks upside despite his athletic ability. He will be a 25-year-old rookie and that’s part of why he ranked in the 150s on the consensus big boards with a peak of 126. The Bears could have waited until Round 3 to get him, or at least traded down.
Giants: Cordale Flott, CB, LSU
- Round 3, Pick 81
Flott joins his cousin, Velus Jones, on the list of reaches. Similar to Jones, Flott has solid size and good speed, as he ran the 40 in 4.40 seconds at his Pro Day. He also has versatility and can play inside and outside at corner as he did at LSU.
However, Flott has a rather slender frame and lacks physicality in his game. He also lacks the anticipation needed to make plays on the ball, as evidenced by his one interception and 10 pass defenses in 29 career games. Few had Flott as a Day 2 prospect, and he ranked at 208 overall on The Athletic’s consensus big board. The Giants obviously have plans for Flott, but like their selection of Ezeudu, they jumped the gun here.
Bills: Terrel Bernard, LB, Baylor
- Round 3, Pick 89
Bernard was a productive four-year player at Baylor and posted two seasons with at least 103 tackles. However, he lacks size for the next level, as he is just 6-1, 224 pounds. That may limit him to being just a backup linebacker and special teams ace at the next level.
NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein notes that “scouts rave about [Bernard’s] leadership and character,” so it seems that he will be able to find a niche on this Bills team. Still, Zierlein had him projected as a fifth-rounder, and the consensus big board rankings of 157 and 159 agree with that.
The Bills have had success in developing small linebackers at the next level like Matt Milano. So, this is a good landing spot for Bernard. Still, it appears that they were at least a round too soon in calling his name.
49ers: Tyrion Davis-Price, RB, LSU
- Round 3, Pick 93
Look, far be it for anyone to doubt a Kyle Shanahan running back pick, but Davis-Price was a big-time reach. He checked in at 230 and 234 on the two consensus big boards while ESPN rated him as their 175th overall prospect in this year’s class.
Davis-Price has solid size at 6-0, 211 pounds and good speed (4.48 40 time). He also ran for 1,003 yards during his final season at LSU and cuts well for a big back. Shanahan and his father have long found quality running backs in the 2022 NFL Draft. Davis-Price could be the next one, but there’s no denying he was more of a mid-to-late-Day 3 talent than a late-Day 2 one.