The Pacers hold a 2-1 lead in the series against one of the NBA‘s best teams.
It could very well be 2-1 in the Thunder‘s favor if it weren’t for a comeback in Game 1.
One particular stat from this series shows just how crazy it is that Indiana is leading despite the data saying otherwise.
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What crazy stat doesn’t support Indiana being up 2-1?
Sam Quinn of CBS recently posted on X the point differentials from each quarter in the series.
Here’s the data he provided:
NBA Finals by quarter
1st: OKC +23
2nd: OKC +3
3rd: OKC +7
4th: IND +27
It doesn’t take too much brain power or thinking to see the elephant in the room here.
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Indiana has dominated fourth quarters but doesn’t have a positive point differential in the series for any other quarter.
A +3 in the second quarter doesn’t mean too much against Indiana.
A +7 in the third quarter starts to show them being outworked slightly.
The first quarter on the other hand is the clear problem here.
They start games off way too slowly and close out the opposite way.
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We have seen OKC feel the effects of minutes late game, and even though both teams have quality depth that they use, Indiana has taken advantage of that part of the game.
Indiana can’t rely on OKC having an off-quarter in the fourth quarter going forward and needs to try and play an even effort for 48 minutes.
It feels unlikely that the Thunder will struggle again in the last 6-7 minutes of regulation as they did in Game 3, so Indiana should be prepared for a change in Game 4.
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