After starting the season with a 12-3 record, it looked like the Warriors could be on the verge of a special season. They have since come crashing back to Earth, going 2-9 over their next 11 games.
A little bit of regression might have been expected, but how could a team that had the third-best percentage over the first month of the season suddenly transform into the third-worst in the league over the following month?
That dropoff isn’t simply the result of one thing. A number of issues are plaguing the Warriors, some more fixable than others.
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Three reasons the Warriors no longer look like contenders
Golden State is worse on both sides of the ball
The Warriors were top-10 in offense and defense during their hot start to the season. That is generally the mark of a team in championship contention.
That has completely flipped course over their slide, where they’ve dropped to the bottom 10 in both categories.
| Before Nov. 23 | Stat | After Nov. 23 |
|---|---|---|
| 12-3 | Warriors record | 2-9 |
| 115.7 (6th) | Offensive Rating | 106.0 (27th) |
| 105.8 (4th) | Defensive Rating | 115.5 (23rd) |
| 58.0% (13th) | True Shooting | 52.7 (29th) |
Injuries are part of the reason for the dropoff. De’Anthony Melton was a surprisingly important glue guy for them, and he’s now on the Nets after having season-ending ACL surgery and only playing in six games. Brandin Podziemski has been ineffective in that same role.
There are also some schematic issues at play, as pointed out by Warriors writer Joe Viray. The reasons are unknown, but the Warriors have started using less of the offensive mover-blocker principles assistant coach Terry Stotts brought at the start of the season.
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Buddy Hield has cooled off
Much of Golden State’s hot start was caused by the electric play of Buddy Hield, who averaged more points and shot better from 3 than Stephen Curry in October.
Hield has cooled considerably since then, which has been the story of his career.
Meet Buddy Hield Cycle! pic.twitter.com/olHmCGEbyV
โ ๐ฌ ๐ฑ ๐ช ๐ผ ๐ฎ โง (@nflchxse) April 29, 2024
While Hield has still had a few monster games since his hot start, he’s averaging just 10.9 points per game since Nov. 8. That is a far cry from the 21.1 he averaged through the first eight games.
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Stephen Curry doesn’t look like the same player
Hield isn’t the only player who has slumped. At the start of the season, Curry looked like his vintage self. Golden State’s offense still revolves around him even at the age of 36, and no defense could slow him down.
Curry started to miss time toward the end of November with tendinitis in both knees. He hasn’t been the same player since. It’s an injury he told The Athletic’s Anthony Slater “has the potential to be a nagging type thing if you donโt take care of it,” and that may be what is happening.
| Before Nov. 23 | Stat (per game) | After Nov. 23 |
|---|---|---|
| 12-3 | Warriors record | 2-9 |
| 12 | Games | 9 |
| 22.7 | Points | 21.0 |
| 48.9% | Field Goal % | 38.7% |
| 45.0% | 3-point % | 36.4% |
Curry’s shooting accuracy has gone way down during the Warriors’ skid. He hasn’t been playing poorly, but the team needed him to be an MVP-caliber player to sustain that hot start and he hasn’t been that.
That Curry is wearing down is understandable given how much he has to do on offense. The Warriors have tried to address that issue, trading for Dennis Schroder to relieve some of the offensive burden. It will take some time to see if that decision pays off.
If Schroder doesn’t inject life into this squad, the Warriors should know this isn’t just a blip on the radar. They need to make big changes to recapture what they had at the start of the season.
It starts with Curry, who needs way less on his plate to preserve those knees. Schroder is a good first step, but they need at least one more big scorer before the trade deadline.
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