The No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs will face off with the No. 12 UAB Blazers in the first round of the NCAA March Madness Tournament in the East bracket. UAB is coming off their first American Conference Championship win, which punched their return to the tournament after missing out last season. The Aztecs are returning for the fourth consecutive year and looking for another deep run after their Cinderella story ended in the National Championship game last year.
The Aztecs are -point favorites for the game, but they are coming off a letdown performance in the Mountain West Championship game against New Mexico, in which they only scored 61 points. The Blazers’ offense is far better than the Lobos, who recently defeated the Aztecs, setting this matchup to be a potential bracket buster in the first round.
If you’re looking for wager action from this one, check out the full betting preview below before tip-off. The opening jump is scheduled for Friday, March 22, at 1:45 p.m. ET on TNT.
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UAB vs. San Diego State odds
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The Aztecs have the defensive edge in the battle, but it’s critical for their offense to show up. In their last four losses this season, they failed to crack 70 points.
Three betting trends to watch
- The Aztecs are 11-14-0 ATS as the favorites this season
- UAB is 11-2-0 ATS as underdogs this season
- UAB is 6-4-0 to the OVER on the totals in their 10; San Diego is 3-7-0 to the OVER on the totals in their last 10
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San Diego State key players to watch
Although not a primary scorer, the Aztecs do have the 2023-24 Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year in Lamont Butler. He recorded the second-most steals (32) during conference play. He is the third straight Aztec to win the award and seventh overall. As for scoring, here are the players to watch out for in the matchup.
- Jaedon LeDee: 21.1 points per game on 55.7% from the field and 41% from deep
- Reese Waters: 10 points per game on 36.9% from deep
UAB key players to watch
UAB also has a conference defensive player of the year in Yaxel Lendeborg. The junior forward led the conference in rebounds and blocks per game (2.1). Getting to the paint is going to be a challenge against him. He also leads the team in scoring at 13.9 points per game. The team also has three other double-digit scorers who could impact the game.
- Eric Gaines: 12.2 points per game
- Alejandro Vasquez:11.3 points per game on 39% shooting from deep
- Efrem Johnson: 10.9 points per game on 34.9% shooting from deep
Best individual matchup: Vasquez vs. Butler
Vasquez had a few rough stretches of play that hindered his scoring total for the season, but he is much better than his 11 points per game average may suggest. In his last seven games, he is averaging nearly 17 points per game. If you take away a recent five-point performance due to being ejected in five minutes of play, he is averaging closer to 19 points per contest in his last six.
He is a big part of the Blazers’ offense currently, and is sure to draw the services of Butler to try and slow him down. The Aztecs’ guard has been a thorn in the side of opposing guards all season long, and his next matchup with Vasquez is must-see TV.
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SDSU vs. UAB stat to know
The Aztecs have only allowed one 70-point performance to an opponent in their last 10 games. That was 70 on a dot in an earlier 81-70 win over New Mexico. Meanwhile, UAB has scored 70 or more in six consecutive games and 11 of their last 12. The Aztecs have a top 50 defense in points allowed, and that’s what they’ll lean on in this one.
Gaines and Vasquez are both averaging closer to 20 points per game in their last six, well over their season averages of 12 and 11, respectively, for the Blazers.
UAB vs. San Diego State prediction
The Aztecs’ supporting cast has been rather pedestrian offensively as of late. Given how explosive UAB has been during that time, it’s hard to see them scoring enough to win despite a solid defensive effort. We’ve called a few upsets in the first round, and we like the chances of this being another one.
Prediction: UAB 67, San Diego State 63. UAB (+7.5) covers the spread in a game that finishes UNDER the total (139)