Charles Oliveira has won 11 consecutive fights while Islam Makhachev has been victorious in 10 straight bouts. One of those streaks will end at UFC 280 when they meet for the vacant UFC lightweight title inside Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi on October 22.
Oliveira was forced to vacate the title ahead of his submission victory over Justin Gaethje when he failed to make weight. That title will now be up for grabs as two of the most dominant lightweights clash.
Oliveira hasn’t lost a fight in nearly four years and collected the lightweight title when he knocked out Michael Chandler in May 2021. He’s pursuing his fourth consecutive finish but finds himself up against a fighter who is arguably just as dominant as he has been in Makhachev.
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Makhachev made his UFC debut in 2015 and was stopped in the second fight of his tenure when Adriano Martins knocked him out in the first round. Since then, Makhachev has steamrolled opponent after opponent under the watchful eye of former UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov.
It’s a fascinating clash of styles, as Makhachev will bring his smothering Sambo style into the octagon against arguably the greatest jiu-jitsu practitioner to enter the cage.
Sporting News provides insight on how to bet on this matchup.
All betting lines courtesy of FanDuel
Betting Odds for Oliveira vs. Makhachev
- Charles Oliveira: +136
- Islam Makhachev: -174
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Oliveira vs. Makhachev Betting Trends
- Oliveira via KO/TKO: +500
- Oliveira via submission: +320
- Oliveira via decision: +1200
- Makhachev via KO/TKO: +550
- Makhachev via submission: +200
- Makhachev via decision: +400
Expert Prediction for Oliveira vs. Makhachev
It’s almost laughable that oddsmakers would install Makhachev as the favorite over a man on as torrid of a run as we’ve seen in UFC history.
But, alas, here we are.
FanDuel has Makhachev as nearly a 2-1 favorite at -174, while Oliveira sits at +136. Maybe that’s the influence of Khabib Nurmagomedov that has nudged Makhachev by “Do Bronx” because it certainly isn’t the strength of schedule or the method of winning.
Makhachev’s dominance over the past two years cannot be ignored, as he’s ran roughshod over the likes of Bobby Green, Dan Hooker, Thiago Moises, and Drew Dober on his way to securing a title opportunity. Four fights, four finishes. That’s very impressive.
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However, that doesn’t quite compare to Oliveira’s unbeaten journey that began in 2018 with a submission of Clay Guida and has seen him take out ten of his last eleven opponents via submission or knockout. That includes Michael Chandler, Dustin Poirier, and his most recent submission win over Justin Gaethje. He’s been undeniable with a wicked combination of resilience, violence, and refining a technique no fighter is safe from.
Makhachev is a fantastic grappler who smothers his opponents with his Sambo. But there are too many dimensions to Oliveira’s game that result in him putting together devastating striking with both offensive and defensive jiu-jitsu. No matter where the fight goes, Makhachev will be in danger. He’s going to have to do his best to bring the fight to the canvas, as the Brazilian has a pretty significant advantage in that department. However, leaning into his strength might play into Oliveira’s wheelhouse, considering that he is the UFC’s all-time leader in submissions with 16.
This is simply a case of Oliveira having more ways to win than Makhachev, and it’s debatable if the Dagestanian will even have an edge in the grappling department.
As fascinating as this fight is, Oliveira’s complete game will eventually overwhelm Makhachev as he’ll collect his 12th consecutive victory and add another finish to his UFC record of 19.
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If you are considering betting on the method of finish, FanDuel has Oliveira by submission at +320 and by (T)KO at +500. The problem is that Oliveira is so good at finishing his opponents that it’s impossible to pin down how he’ll get the job done.
Stick with the former champion.