The Aggies come into the NCAA Tournament playing their best basketball, while the Horned Frogs are limping into March. Utah State won six of their final seven games, moving their seed line all the way up to an eight, impressive for a mid-major program. TCU had the chance to be around a three or four-seed at the end of January. Going 5-7 over their final 12 games put TCU on the bubble and ultimately dropped them to a nine seed.
TCU does have a 19-14 record against the spread this season, while Utah State is only 14-15-2 ATS, but that is not indicative of their current teams. Utah State has been scoring at will on their opponents, making it difficult for teams to keep up. While TCU’s offense has been good, their defense has been an open door, allowing many opponents to beat them in shootouts to end the season.
Here’s everything you need to know about betting on Utah State vs. TCU in the 2024 NCAA Tournament, including updated odds, trends and our prediction for this first-round game.
Utah State vs. TCU odds
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The line for this matchup is intriguing, with TCU favored even though the Aggies come into the matchup playing better than the Horned Frogs. Oddsmakers are expecting a lot of points, with a point total in the top-10 of all the first-round contests.
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Three betting trends to watch
- The Horned Frogs are 2-4 in their last six games and have only covered the spread twice.
- The Aggies have won six of their last seven games but have only covered two spreads over those seven matchups.
- TCU and Utah State have each hit the OVER for total points in four of their last five contests.
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Utah State Aggies key players
- Great Osobor leads the Aggies in scoring with 18.0 PPG, ranking in the top 100 in the country. The 6-foot-8 forward also leads the team in rebounding with 9.2 RPG, ranking top 50 in the nation. Osobor is a rare case of a player who transfers to a bigger program and performs better. Osobor averaged 10.1 PPG at Montana State last season but has become a star in his first season with Utah State.
- Ian Martinez, Utah State’s second-leading scorer, averages 13.1 PPG and shoots the ball well, making 47.3% of his field goals and shooting 37.8% from three.
- Point guard Darius Brown II has been excellent this season. He is third on the team in scoring with 12.4 PPG and also leads the team in assists with 6.5 APG, ranking top-10 in all of college basketball.
TCU Horned Frogs key players
- Emanuel Miller is a do-it-all forward for the Horned Frogs. He leads the team in scoring with 15.9 PPG and rebounds with 5.9 RPG. He can score at all levels, shooting 48.7% from the field and 38.2% from three.
- Jameer Nelson Jr. is a dynamic guard, second on the team in scoring with 11.3 PPG, and leads the team in assists with 3.3 APG. He can sometimes be inefficient, though, only shooting 43.8% from the field and 30.8% from three.
- JaKobe Coles averages 9.7 PPG, fourth on the team, but is among the most efficient scorers. He shoots 49.6% from the field and 40% from three. When he gets more touches, he produces, scoring 10-plus points in six of the last seven games when he attempts at least seven field goals.
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Best individual matchup: Emanuel Miller vs. Great Osobor
The team’s two leading scorers, Miller and Osobor, are 6-foot-7 and 6-foot-8, respectively, and average within 2.1 PPG of one another. The difference is that Osobor is the more efficient scorer of the two. He shoots 9.6% better from the field than Miller. Osobor scored 593 points this season, 69 more points than Miller but on 21 fewer field goal attempts.
Utah State vs. TCU stat to know
The Aggies are 2-0 against top-25 teams this season, while TCU is only 4-7. Utah State’s Mountain West schedule does not offer the level of competition TCU sees in the Big 12. Yet when the Aggies play top teams, they bring their best and have won their only two chances playing ranked teams. TCU has struggled against top competition, and the Aggies, regardless of seed or polls, are a top-25 caliber team.
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Utah State vs. TCU prediction: Aggies win shootout
The Aggies and Horned Frogs each go nine or 10 deep most nights, but Utah State gets more production from its supporting cast than TCU. Take away the leading scorer from each squad, and TCU’s second- through fourth-leading scorers average 32.1 PPG, while Utah State’s average 36.9 PPG. That quality depth for the Aggies should help them pull off the first-round upset.
Prediction: Utah State 78, TCU 73. Utah State (+3.5) covers the spread, with the game going OVER the total (148.5).