Fan expectations are high for 19-year-old Spurs rookie Victor Wembanyama as he enters the 2023-34 NBA season. That means bettors will want to make the most of markets involving the talented rookie.
Analysts began discussing whether he would win NBA Rookie of the Year honors before he was even drafted, so there are several Victor Wembanyama prop markets of interest to bettors.
Victor Wembanyama props, odds: MVP, play-in tournament MVP, Rookie of the Year
The following table contains the odds for Wembanyama to win NBA MVP, the play-in tournament MVP and Rookie of the Year:
NBA MVP as a rookie a realistic expectation for Victor Wembanyama?
Is it possible? Of course. But is it a realistic expectation? No.
There are so many talented players who perform at such a high level that it would take a truly exceptional season for a rookie to take NBA MVP honors, which is why his chances of winning are a paltry 0.2%.
To be fair, it has been done before in the NBA, NHL, MLB and NFL. But in the history of professional sports in North America, only eight rookies have earned their respective league’s MVP trophy.
- NBA: Wilt Chamberlain (1959-60), Wes Unseld (1968-69)
- NFL: Jim Brown (1956-57)
- NHL: Nels Stewart (1925-26), Herb Gardiner (1926-27), Wayne Gretzky (1979-80)
- MLB: Fred Lynn (1975), Ichiro Suzuki (2001)
Play-in tournament MVP
The 2023-24 season will be the first for the in-season tournament. Teams are split into groups of five and will play the other four once. The six group winners and two “wild cards” will make it to the knockout rounds.
The odds for San Antonio’s group, West C, are as follows (via FanDuel):
- Kings +195
- Warriors +200
- Timberwolves +320
- Thunder +410
- Spurs +2300
Wembanyama has only a 1.04% chance of winning the play-in tournament MVP for a solid reason: The Spurs will probably not make it past the group stage.
NBA Rookie of the Year odds for Victor Wembanyama
In this award’s history, 22 NBA Rookie of the Year winners were the No. 1 pick of their respective draft class. But several other indicators also point toward Wembanyama taking ROY home:
- Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich has helped guide two rookie centers to ROY honors, Tim Duncan (1997-98) and David Robinson (1989-90).
- Since the 2006-07 season, the betting favorite heading into the season went on to win six times (2006-07, 2007-08, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2022-23).
- Only two second-round picks have won ROY (Malcolm Brogdon, 2016-17; Woody Sauldsberry, 1957-58).
- Six winners entered the season with +250 odds or shorter.
- Fourteen of 17 winners since the 2006-07 season had odds shorter than +700 when the season began; 15 had odds inside the top five players on betting boards.
- In the 71-year history of the award, there have been three ties (1999-00, 1994-95, 1970-71), 64 were drafted inside the first 10 picks, 55 within the first five, and 45 winners were a top-three pick.
- Nineteen of 24 winners were taken within the first five picks of their draft since 1999-2000.
Prop market odds for Victor Wembanyama
- Lead the NBA in rebounds, +25000 (BetRivers)
- Lead NBA in blocks, +800 (Bet365)
- To make the all-rookie first team, -2000 (BetRivers)
- To make the all-defensive first team, +600 (BetRivers)
- To make all-NBA first team, +4000 (BetRivers)
Victor Wembanyama bets to consider
- Rookie of the Year: If you plan on betting on him, do it ASAP while he still has plus money odds.
- To lead the NBA in blocks: He’s 7-foot-4 with an 8-foot wingspan and averaged 3.2 blocks per game last season with the Metropolitans 92 of the Pro A League. Last season’s NBA blocks leader averaged three per game and appeared in 63 games. If Wembanyama can stay healthy, he’ll have a shot.
- To make the all-defensive first team: Only five rookies have made the all-defensive first team, the last being Tim Duncan. Brook Lopez was the center on last year’s all-defensive first team.
- To make the all-NBA first team: Eight rookies have been named to the all-NBA first team, two since 1969 (Larry Bird, 1980 and Tim Duncan, 1998). Gregg Popovich has a solid history regarding “generational talents” at the center position. At +4000, he’s a long shot, but one with value.