As the regular season draws to a close, the Warriors find themselves at risk of falling in the Western Conference standings.
The Warriors were in the mix for the No. 1 seed for much of the season, but the Suns have since tightened their grip on the best record in the Western Conference. Not only that, but the Grizzlies have jumped the Warriors in the standings, and Golden State’s lead over Dallas, Utah and Denver is now razor-thin.
Where will the Warriors end up? Here’s a look at their latest odds, plus tiebreakers that could determine their seeding.
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Where are the Warriors projected to finish in Western Conference?
As of March 30, FiveThirtyEight’s model projects the Warriors to finish the season with a 51-31 record, tying them with the Mavericks in third place in the Western Conference standings.
Having won three of the four matchups this season, the Mavericks own the tiebreaker, which would mean the Warriors would drop to the No. 4 seed. FiveThirtyEight’s model projects the Jazz to finish fifth in the Western Conference, in which case Golden State would play Utah in the first round of the playoffs.
The Ringer’s Odds Machine spits out the same situation, with the Warriors and Mavericks both finishing the season with 51 wins and the Jazz finishing in fifth with 50 wins.
NBA standings 2022: Western Conference
(Current through March 30 games)
| Seed | Team | Record | Games back |
| 1. | Suns | 62-14 | – |
| 2. | Grizzlies | 54-23 | 8.5 |
| 3. | Mavericks | 48-29 | 14.5 |
| 4. | Warriors | 48-29 | 14.5 |
| 5. | Nuggets | 46-31 | 16.6 |
| 6. | Jazz | 45-31 | 17 |
| 7. | Timberwolves | 43-34 | 19.5 |
| 8. | Clippers | 37-39 | 25 |
| 9. | Pelicans | 33-43 | 29 |
| 10. | Lakers | 31-44 | 30.5 |
| 11. | Spurs | 31-45 | 31 |
| 12. | Kings | 28-49 | 34.4 |
| 13. | Trail Blazers | 27-49 | 35 |
| 14. | Thunder | 22-54 | 40 |
| 15. | Rockets | 20-57 | 42.5 |
Warriors tiebreakers and head-to-head records
Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker. If teams split the season series, the next tiebreaker is higher winning percentage within the division if teams share a division. If they do not share a division, the tiebreaker is winning percentage in conference games.
Here is how the Warriors have fared against teams around them in the standings:
- vs. Mavericks: 1-3; Lost the season series
- vs. Jazz: 2-1; Final matchup on April 2
- vs. Nuggets: 3-1; Lost the season series
Having lost the season series with the Mavericks and Nuggets, the Warriors will have to finish a full game ahead to stay in front of either one of them in the standings.
The Warriors are 2-1 against the Jazz this season, with the final matchup coming on April 2.
Warriors remaining schedule
According to Tankathon, the Warriors have the third-easiest remaining schedule.
For comparison, the Jazz have the sixth-hardest remaining schedule while the Mavericks have the second-easiest and the Nuggets have the 15th-easiest.
You can find the Warriors’ remaining schedule below.
| Date | Opponent | Time (ET) |
| April 2 | vs. Jazz | 8:30 p.m. |
| April 3 | at Kings | 9:00 p.m. |
| April 7 | vs. Lakers | 10:00 p.m. |
| April 9 | at Spurs | TBD |
| April 10 | at Pelicans | TBD |