The clocks have flipped, spring has sprung, and the greatest sporting event of the year is almost here. That’s right — It’s time for March Madness! All of your favorite March traditions are back, from not being able to find TruTV on your menu guide to asking what state Gonzaga is in. While all the upsets, non-stop snacking, and fake sick days are great, you can really add to your fun by winning some serious cash. That requires going over the favorites, sleepers, and longshots in the Vegas betting odds for who will win the 2022 NCAA Tournament.
Even though 68 teams are currently vying for the chance to win it all, most casual fans probably think only a few are realistic contenders. Maybe, but that doesn’t mean you should ignore the five and six seeds of the world. There’s betting value with those types of teams, and if a sleeper like Houston cuts down the nets in New Orleans on April 4, then every day will be Mardi Gras for whoever bets on them. Sprinkling at least a little money on a couple sleepers and maybe a longshot or two is a smart way to diversify your portfolio even if you bet big on one or two of the top seeds.
TEAMRANKINGS’ EXPERT TIPS: Bracket advice | Predictor Tool
Unlike last year with the undefeated ‘Zags, there isn’t a clear-cut favorite. Even if there was, we saw last year how that can work out. Gonzaga once again has the shortest odds (+300) but the gulf between the ‘Zags and the next-best team, Arizona (+600), isn’t as wide. Regardless, it’s all about finding value, which presents itself in a variety of ways. From looking for favorable draws to studying the advanced stats, it’s important to take in as much information as possible.
MORE: Print your 2022 March Madness Bracket here
2022 NCAA Tournament Odds
Odds courtesy of Fanduel sportsbook
| Teams | Odds |
|---|---|
| Gonzaga | +300 |
| Arizona | +600 |
| Kentucky | +850 |
| Baylor | +1000 |
| Kansas | +1400 |
| Auburn | +1600 |
| Purdue | +1600 |
| Duke | +1700 |
| Villanova | +2000 |
| Texas Tech | +2500 |
| Tennessee | +2500 |
| Iowa | +2500 |
| UCLA | +3500 |
| Houston | +4000 |
| Illinois | +5000 |
| Arkansas | +6500 |
| Texas | +6500 |
| Wisconsin | +7000 |
| UConn | +8500 |
| San Diego State | +10000 |
| Michigan | +12000 |
| LSU | +12000 |
| Saint Mary’s | +12000 |
| Alabama | +15000 |
| Virginia Tech | +17000 |
| North Carolina | +20000 |
| Providence | +20000 |
| USC | +20000 |
| Loyola Chicago | +20000 |
| Boise State | +20000 |
| Marquette | +20000 |
| Ohio State | +25000 |
| Miami (FL) | +25000 |
| Michigan State | +25000 |
| Indiana | +25000 |
| Memphis | +25000 |
| Colorado State | +25000 |
| San Francisco | +25000 |
| Davidson | +40000 |
| UAB | +40000 |
| Wyoming | +40000 |
| Chattanooga | +40000 |
| Colgate | +40000 |
| Vermont | +40000 |
| Creighton | +50000 |
| TCU | +50000 |
| Notre Dame | +50000 |
| Richmond | +50000 |
| South Dakota State | +50000 |
| Georgia State | +50000 |
| Chattanooga | +50000 |
| Longwood | +50000 |
| Bryant | +50000 |
| Wright State | +50000 |
| Delaware | +50000 |
| Colgate | +50000 |
| Jacksonville State | +50000 |
| Montana State | +50000 |
| Texas A&M Corpus Christi | +50000 |
| New Mexico State | +50000 |
| Cal-State Fullerton | +50000 |
| Texas Southern | +50000 |
| Akron | +50000 |
| Norfolk State | +50000 |
Who will win the NCAA Tournament in 2022?
It’s always tempting to pick all four of the top seeds to make the Final Four when making your bracket picks. It just makes sense, right? Well, not really considering the number of times all four No. 1s have made the Final Four is equivalent to the number of times a 16 has beaten a 1 — just once. If you think you’re slick going with the “three plus one” method, well, that doesn’t happen often either — just five times.
While it’s unlikely all of the top four seeds make it to New Orleans, one of those top four still has a great chance of winning it all, which is why they’re four of the top five teams on the odds board. Let’s take a closer look at the four top seeds.
WEST: GONZAGA BULLDOGS (+300)
By now, everyone knows about Gonzaga’s failure to win it all. They’ve been close a few times, but the ‘Zags just can’t seem to get over the hump. Is this the year? There’s a good chance. Not only does Gonzaga have the possible No. 1 overall pick in this year’s NBA Draft (Chet Holmgren), but it also has what looks to be a decent draw. Gonzaga’s second round matchup might be one of the tougher ones for a No. 1 seed, and both No. 4 Arkansas and No. 5 UConn are in the top 20 in Kenpom’s ratings, but potential Elite 8 foes Duke and Texas Tech have as many Quad 1 wins between them as Gonzaga does by itself.
EAST: BAYLOR BEARS (+1000)
Baylor isn’t as good as last year’s title-winning squad, but with nine Quad 1 wins, it’s tied with Gonzaga and Kansas for the most in the country. What’s tough for the Bears is they’re in the same region as Kentucky, who actually has shorter odds (+750). Throw in a high-quality Purdue team as the No. 3 seed, an experienced UCLA squad coming off a Final Four run of its own last year as the No. 4, and a very solid Saint Mary’s unit as the No. 5, and it’s tough to feel great about wagering on the Bears. All five of the teams just mentioned are in the top 16 in the Kenpom Ratings, and with underseeded Virginia Tech and San Francisco (see below) also in the East, it’s fair to say Baylor is in the “Region of Death.” Someone has to win it, but if you’re going to bet on a No. 1, Baylor should probably be your last choice despite.
MIDWEST: KANSAS JAYHAWKS (+1400)
All things considered, Kansas got a pretty favorable draw. Wisconsin (No. 3) and Providence (No. 4) are by far the worst teams at their respective seeds, according to the Kenpom Ratings, and the No. 6 seed, LSU, just lost its coach. Now, none of that really matters if Kansas plays a solid Iowa team in the Sweet 16 and Auburn and potential top-overall NBA pick Jabari Smith in the Elite 8, but overall, the Jayhawks are in decent position to make a deep run. Their relatively long odds make them especially appealing.
SOUTH: ARIZONA WILDCATS (+600)
Arizona’s odds seem out of whack for how tough its draw is. Many thought third-seeded Tennessee should have been in the discussion for top seed, while fifth-seeded Houston ranks higher in the Kenpom Ratings than Kansas. All told, there are five teams in Kenpom’s top 17 in this region. To make matters worse, Arizona has just six Quad 1 wins this year — three fewer than the other three No. 1 seeds. Clearly, Arizona is a highly talented team, which is why it has such short odds, but like Baylor, this is another No. 1 to be somewhat wary of.
March Madness sleepers
The term “sleeper” is always a topic of debate. If you only think of teams with a “legitimate” chance to win the championship as a sleeper, then you’re stuck calling a bunch of three seeds “sleepers.” That’s boring. Others go deep with their definition and include seeds much closer to the double-digit range.
Because we want to appeal to a wide audience, we’ll settle somewhere in the middle of the two definitions and identify one team from each region that offers intriguing value at its current odds. Some are bigger longshots than others, but like we said before, it never hurts to diversify.
South: Houston Cougars (+4000)
As we said in Arizona’s section above, the South is a brutal region with five teams in the top 17 of Kenpom’s ratings, but fifth-seeded Houston (No. 5) ranks above all of them except Arizona. The Cougars also rank third in average margin of victory (+16.9). Obviously, their schedule has a lot to do with that, but Houston also has plenty of experience after last year’s Final Four run. The lack of Quad 1 wins (1) is a big concern, but the odds are nice enough for at least a little sprinkle.
West: UConn Huskies (+8500)
Fifth-seeded UConn is in the top 35 in both adjusted offense and defense in the Kenpom Ratings. Gonzaga is the only other team in its region that can claim that. The ‘Zags are also the only other team in the West with more Quad 1 wins than UConn’s six. Clearly, this is a solid team that’s been through some battles this year, and the fact it’s fourth in the country in average of margin of victory (+10) shows it can really put it on opponents, too. Maybe the Huskies have another deep run in them.
East: Virginia Tech (+17000)/San Francisco Dons (+25000)
Because the East has two of the five teams with the shortest odds (Baylor and Kentucky), it’s tough to find a sleeper who feels like it has a legitimate shot to even make it out of the region. Fifth-seeded Saint Mary’s (+12000) is a solid team with a nice number, but we decided to go big with 10th-seeded San Francisco and 11th-seeded Virginia Tech. Most agree that the Hokies are severely underseeded, and considering they rank fourth in the country in three-point percentage, it’s easy to imagine them getting hot from deep and going on a run. Of course, it’s just as easy to imagine them losing in the second round to third-seeded Purdue, who’s third in three-point percentage, but that’s no fun.
If you really want to live dangerously, go with the Dons, who are No. 21 in Kenpom’s ratings and have an impressive five Quad 1 wins this year. Yes, beating Murray State, Kentucky, Purdue, and Baylor just to get out of its region seems impossible, but at +25000, it’s worth a little something.
Midwest: LSU Tigers (+12000)
Glass half-empty: LSU will be in disarray because its coach was fired less than a week before the start of the NCAA Tournament. Glass half-full: LSU will come together as a team and be more focused because its coach was fired less than a week before the start of the NCAA Tournament. Choose your own adventure here, but one thing is certain: LSU Is a talented team. The sixth-seeded Tigers rank 19th in the Kempom ratings, much higher than the Midwest’s No. 3 (Wisconsin) and No. 4 (Providence) seeds and not too far behind the No. 5 seed (Iowa). Kansas and Auburn are a brutal top two, but ranking sixth in the nation in defensive efficiency is something the tough-minded Tigers will always be able to hang its hat on.