After a so-so Week 2 in the XFL, Week 3 was filled with a ton of action and a lot of scoring. The OVER hit in two of the four games, while all four favorites won outright on the moneyline. The favorites are 9-3 straight up and 5-7 against the spread through the first three weeks. We almost saw the Vipers, who were three-point underdogs, pull off an upset to kick off the week, but Sea Dragons QB Ben DiNucci found WR Josh Gordon for a game-winning 65-yard touchdown catch with a minute left in the game.
Week 4 action begins with a doubleheader on Saturday night, starting with a Week 1 rematch between the Roughnecks and the Guardians at 7 p.m. ET (FX). After that, the Brahmas will be on the road for the third-straight week as they take on the Sea Dragons at 10 p.m. ET (FX). Then on Sunday afternoon, we have another doubleheader beginning at 4 p.m. ET between the Renegades and the Battlehawks, who will be playing at home for the first time this season. Lastly, the Vipers will head to D.C. to play the Defenders in a Week 2 rematch. The Defenders are the clear favorite at +200 on BetMGM to win the XFL championship after their win over St. Louis.
Below, we’ll break down the best XFL Week 4 bets and give out our predictions on how things could play out across the league:
MORE WEEK 4 XFL: DraftKings lineup
XFL Week 4 picks, predictions
All odds courtesy of BetMGM
Houston Roughnecks at Orlando Guardians
Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET, FX
- Spread: Roughnecks -9
- Moneyline: Roughnecks -400, Guardians +300
- Over/Under: 37.5
The first game to lead off Week 4 is a rematch from Week 1 between the Roughnecks and Guardians. Houston dominated Orlando on both sides, winning 33-12. With the spread at 8.5, we could see a similar result this weekend. Houston is coming into this week’s game undefeated (3-0) after they took down the Brahmas 22-13. Roughnecks QB Brandon Silvers had an interception but threw for 278 yards and three touchdowns. Houston’s defense did not have a monster performance, but it still got a turnover off San Antonio QB Jack Coan.
As for the Guardians, they had a chance to pick up their first win last week but fell just short as QB Paxton Lynch threw a deep ball to WR Charleston Rambo on fourth down, but he couldn’t stay in bounds. Orlando also had two turnovers in the game, which led to points and extra possessions for Arlington. If the Guardians hope to pull off the upset, they must get after Silvers, which the Brahmas did last week (two sacks). However, it’s tough to trust Orlando’s offense to go shot for shot with the Roughnecks, who can put up points in bunches. Take the Roughnecks and the points!
Pick: Roughnecks 27 (-9), Guardians 11
San Antonio Brahmas at Seattle Sea Dragons
Saturday, 10:00 p.m. ET, FX
- Spread: Sea Dragons -4.5
- Moneyline: Brahmas +165, Sea Dragons -200
- Over/Under: 40.5
The Sea Dragons picked up their first win on the road last week against the Vipers, thanks to a ridiculous 65-yard touchdown catch from Josh Gordon. Seattle will now return home to face a Brahmas team that might be 1-2 but will not make this game easy for the Sea Dragons.
Seattle had its turnover issues in last week’s win against the Vegas but overcame them, thanks to RB Morgan Ellison’s play on the ground (103 yards on 17 carries) and DiNucci making the right reads late in the game. Seattle has the skill players on offense to score points and a Ron Zook-led defense that will keep it in games. The big question that remains is whether DiNucci can play a turnover-free game. The answer right now is no based on his eight turnovers through three games. The Brahmas’ passing game leaves much to be desired with Coan, but they have two solid running backs in Jacques Patrick and Kalen Ballage, who can pick up yards and control. If the Sea Dragons don’t have Ellison, San Antonio can keep the game close, as their secondary won’t back down from the challenge of Gordon and Pearson.
Pick: Sea Dragons 22, Brahmas 18 (+4.5)
Arlington Renegades at St. Louis Battlehawks
Sunday, 4:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2
- Spread: Battlehawks -4
- Moneyline: Renegades +150, Battlehawks -185
- Over/Under: 36.5
After suffering their first loss on the season, the Battlehawks will return to The Dome at America’s Center for the first time since 2020 this weekend against the Renegades. This should be the best game of Week 4, as the St. Louis fans will show up and give the Battlehawks a much-needed home-field advantage. St. Louis is coming off a tough loss against the Defenders, where they got beat in the trenches, but it was good to see the offense get started early and find a rhythm.
The Battlehawks must get off to a good start on Sunday and take care of the football, as Arlington’s defense has been a turnover machine (eight takeaways) this season. St. Louis QB A.J. McCarron had three turnovers in last week’s loss, including a pick-six. Meanwhile, the Renegades’ offense is still neutral despite Kyle Sloter being under center. Arlington mustered 10 points, 178 total yards, and averaged 3.4 yards per play against the winless Guardians last week. The Renegades also don’t have a consistent running game, which is great news for the Battlehawks’ defense. We will take the Battlehawks in this spot, as their offense should do just enough to keep Renegades at bay.
Pick: Battlehawks 21 (-4), Renegades 15
Vegas Vipers at DC Defenders
Sunday, 7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2
- Spread: Defenders -6
- Moneyline: Vipers +200, Defenders -250
- Over/Under: 41.5
In the last game for Week 4, we have a Week 2 rematch between the Vipers and Defenders. When these two teams faced off at Cashman Field, D.C. won 18-6, fighting the elements and gashing Vegas’ run defense for 229 yards and two touchdowns. The Vipers’ run defense has been one of the worst in the league this season, allowing 151.6 yards per game. However, if they can’t slow down the trio of Jordan Ta’amu, D’Eriq King, and Abram Smith, it could be a long day for Vegas.
It’s not all bad for Vegas, as QB Brett Hundley brought a ton of excitement to the offense. Hundley pushed the ball down the field and was a threat in the running game. The former NFL QB needs to do the same thing this week because the Vipers cannot trust Rod Smith, John Lovett, or DeAndre Torrey on the ground. That being said, we saw the Guardians cover an 8.5-point spread last week with little to no offense, and there’s no reason why Vegas can’t do the same with Hundley under center.
Pick: Defenders 27, Vipers 22 (+6)