Another busy court day in the books, with the FTC v. Microsoft trial set to conclude tomorrow. It was a surprisingly quiet day compared to some of the previous ones, with Microsoft head Satya Nadella giving relatively mild testimony, Activision CEO Bobby Kotick calmly parrying his FTC inquisitors, and a lot more economist talk.
We also got to see, briefly, Nadella and Judge Jacqueline Scott Corley bond over a mutual love for Candy Crush. Delightful.
Exclusivity For Me, But Not For Thee
Console exclusivity has been a part of how video game releases work effectively since video games came into existence. But to hear Xbox and friends tell it over the last few days, everyone in the industry just hates the idea.
Figures like Microsoft head Satya Nadella and Activision CEO Bobby Kotick today made exclusivity seem less like a feature and more like a bug, ruining their ability to do business on certain platforms and reach larger markets of people. Nadella, for instance, mentioned that he had “no love” for exclusives, while Kotick emphasized that taking Call of Duty exclusive to Xbox would be “very detrimental” to business.
All of this is in line with Spencer’s comments. Collectively, Xbox and its witnesses and lawyers appear to be making the argument that the entire idea of exclusivity is a loathesome one they play along with because Sony forced their hands. If Sony would just stop paying for exclusives like Final Fantasy XVI, they argue Xbox wouldn’t have to do deals like it has with Activision just to compete.
Console exclusivity has been a part of how video game releases work effectively since video games came into existence. But to hear Xbox and friends tell it over the last few days, everyone in the industry just hates the idea.
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It’s not shocking, either, that Sony Interactive Entertainment head Jim Ryan sang a distinctively different tune yesterday in his video deposition. He noted that while he “didn’t like” Redfall and Starfield going exclusive to Xbox post-Zenimax acquisition, he “had no quarrel with it” and didn’t view it as anti-competitive. Ryan is unable to climb up on a high horse about exclusives when Xbox has already shared data in the courtroom that PlayStation’s own exclusives far outnumber Xbox’s. Where he draws the line is, of course, at Call of Duty: a franchise so massive and successful that (the FTC and Sony argue) the very idea of it becoming exclusive would supposedly cause irreperable harm to PlayStation.
Right now, it’s admittedly rather difficult to imagine a scenario where Xbox taking Call of Duty exclusive doesn’t massively backfire on Xbox. A loss of Sony’s much larger market share would significantly cut into existing Call of Duty profits, and (as multiple executives have reminded us) the “passion” this hypothetical would ignite in the gamer audience could result in meaningful harm to the brand. But one thing that’s key to keep in mind is that Ryan isn’t thinking about a situation where Xbox takes Call of Duty exclusive next week, month, or year, under very similar market conditions. Rather, Ryan seems to be afraid of the tables truly turning, of being Call of Duty-less in a hypothetical far off future where PlayStation is, for whatever reason, already at the bottom, just as Xbox is now.
Securely at the top of the world, PlayStation would indeed get along fine enough without Call of Duty. But Ryan knows that this situation may not last forever. The “console wars,” manufactured online as they may be, really do come out with sales winners and losers. While PlayStation may be confident in its plans for five, or even ten years down the line, at some point, Ryan is worried that Spencer’s Call of Duty promise is going to expire. And when that happens, if Sony isn’t still on top of the console world, the loss of Call of Duty could be devastating.
It makes sense to be vehemently anti-exclusivity when exclusivity is the tool of the winners, and you’re losing. But markets are unpredictable. There’s no way to guarantee where either competitor will be in ten years. Ryan seems to believe that if he’s not on top when those deals expire, Xbox will do to Sony exactly what Sony has been doing to Xbox for years…or much, much worse. Whether or not he’s right in that belief is up to the court to decide.
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