With six wins in their last seven Premier League matches, Arsenal have firmly cemented themselves as contenders for finishing in the top four this season, which would guarantee a berth into the Champions League next season.
For a long time, Champions League football was a given at Emirates Stadium, but since Arsene Wenger’s final campaign, that hasn’t been the case.
This season, however, Arsenal are back in the conversation. Somewhat unexpectedly, after a stuttering start to the season, Arsenal are holding on to 4th place with a game in hand on most of the teams below them, and Mikel Arteta’s young side seems to be growing in confidence on a weekly basis.
While there are almost certainly still twists and turns to come in the race for the Champions League places, Mikel Arteta’s team look to be in a slightly stronger situation than fellow contenders Manchester United, Tottenham and West Ham. The following table is updated as of March 19, 2022.
| Place | Team | PTS | GP | GD | Next Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.* | Chelsea | 59 | 28 | +38 | vs. BRE, Apr. 2 |
| 4.* | Arsenal | 54 | 28 | +13 | @ CRY, Apr. 4 |
| 5. | Man United | 50 | 29 | +8 | vs. LEI, Apr. 2 |
| 6. | West Ham | 48 | 29 | +12 | @ TOT, Mar. 20 |
| 7. | Tottenham | 48 | 28 | +9 | vs. WHU, Mar. 20 |
| 8. | Wolves | 46 | 30 | +5 | vs. AVL, Apr. 2 |
According to FiveThirtyEight, Arsenal have a 70 percent chance of finishing in fourth place, with Tottenham (19 percent) and Man United (9 percent), the only other serious threats.
MORE: How many goals has Aubameyang scored for Barcelona?
Will Arsenal finish in the top four?
Arsenal look to be in the driver’s seat in the race for fourth spot. However, the one game in hand is away to fierce local rivals Tottenham, who are also in the race for the fourth spot.
There’s also the factor of considering what their opponents have to play for. In theory, the run of mid-table sides such as Crystal Palace, Brighton and Southampton should provide a great opportunity for momentum.
But closing out the season against three teams potentially all fighting for their Premier League survival — Leeds, Newcastle and Everton — could make for an even more difficult challenge.
| Match | Date | Home/ Away |
Opponent | Time (ET) |
| 29 | Mon, Apr. 4 | A | Crystal Palace | 3 p.m. |
| 30 | Sat, Apr. 9 | H | Brighton | 10 a.m. |
| 31 | Sat, Apr. 16 | A | Southampton | 10 a.m. |
| 32 | Wed, Apr. 20 | A | Chelsea | 2:45 p.m. |
| 33 | Sat, Apr. 23 | H | Man United | 7:30 a.m. |
| 34 | Sun, May 1 | A | West Ham | 11:30 a.m. |
| 35 | Sat, May 7 | H | Leeds | 10 a.m. |
| 36 | Sun, May 15 | A | Newcastle | 10 a.m. |
| 37 | Sun, May 22 | H | Everton | 11 a.m. |
| 38 | TBD | A | Tottenham | TBC |
In the last two seasons, Chelsea finished 4th with 67 points and 66 points. Prior to that, in 2018-19, Tottenham needed a higher tally of 71 points to earn a Champions League spot. In 2016-17 and 2017-18, Liverpool finished 4th with 76 points and 75 points, respectively.
So, as the competition in the top half of the table increases with added contenders — and teams take points off each other with greater regularity — the points total for the fourth-place finisher has naturally trended downwards over the years. If Arsenal continued on their current points-per-game trajectory, they would end the campaign on a healthy 73 points.
When was the last time Arsenal were in the Champions League?
In Wenger’s heyday, Champions League football was less a goal and more an expectation. The French icon infamously likened the achievement of a top-four finish to a trophy.
However, he fell short in his penultimate season, of 2016-17. That was also the last season in which Arsenal played in Europe’s top competition.
| Season | Manager | League Finish |
Points Total |
Champions League |
| 2021-22 | Arteta | TBD | TBD | — |
| 2020-21 | Arteta | 8th | 61 | — |
| 2019-20 | Emery/Arteta | 8th | 56 | — |
| 2018-19 | Emery | 5th | 70 | — |
| 2017-18 | Wenger | 6th | 63 | — |
| 2016-17 | Wenger | 5th | 75 | Rd. of 16 |
| 2015-16 | Wenger | 2nd | 71 | Rd. of 16 |
| 2014-15 | Wenger | 3rd | 75 | Rd. of 16 |
| 2013-14 | Wenger | 4th | 79 | Rd. of 16 |
| 2012-13 | Wenger | 4th | 73 | Rd. of 16 |
Although the Gunners lifted the FA Cup that 2016-17 season, they fell outside the top four in the league, agonizingly finishing one point behind 4th-placed Liverpool.
Arsenal were also infamously beaten 10-2 on aggregate by Bayern Munich in that season’s Champions League Round of 16, which marked their most recent appearance in the tournament
The following season (2017-18) was Wenger’s last, with Arsenal way off the pace, 12 points behind Liverpool. The Frenchman nearly salvaged a Champions League spot by winning the Europa League, but suffered a painful semi-final loss to Atletico Madrid (2-1 on aggregate).
Unai Emery (photo below) came in (2018-19) and again finished a point short of qualification. He also lost a Europa League final, 4-1 to Chelsea, which would have clinched a Champions League berth for the club.
Mikel Arteta has been 10 points and six points off fourth place in the Premier League in his two seasons in charge. He similarly fell short of qualifying through the Europa League, seeing his team suffer elimination in the Round of 32 and semifinal stages in the previous two seasons.
Arsenal’s record in the Champions League
Arsenal qualified for the Champions League in 19 successive seasons under Wenger. During that time, they reached just one final — which ended in a 2-1 defeat to Barcelona in 2005-06.
They made the semi-finals once, but were blown away by a Cristiano Ronaldo-inspired Manchester United in 2008-09. Four quarter-final exits were the next closest they came.
Despite Wenger’s enormous success in revolutionizing English football, his record in European competition will forever be a sore point for Arsenal fans, who never quite saw their team fulfill their world-beating potential.
Why Arsenal qualifying for the Champions League is important
Arsenal have made efforts in the last couple of seasons to trim their wage bill. They had, what CEO Vinai Venkatesham described as, “a Champions League squad on a Europa League wage bill.”
With the club taking a longer-term approach, and trusting Mikel Arteta with more responsibility, the benefit of Champions League football at this stage in the cycle would be massive.
Firstly, it would be a real vindication of the trust that has been shown in the Spanish coach. Secondly, the increase in revenue, from broadcast and matchday income, would be substantial, and only add to the financial backing that Arsenal owners Kroenke Sports Enterprises have committed to Arteta’s rebuild.
While the goal for this season would have been to finish in the top six, and achieve at least Europa League football, bypassing that step and heading straight into the Champions League would be a boost from a footballing point of view.
In addition, the prestige that comes with competing in Europe’s elite club competition would play an important part in attracting top-level players to the club. With Arsenal desperately needing to strengthen in midfield and up front in the summer transfer window, the prospect of Champions League football will make the Emirates that much more appealing as a destination for recruits.