Week 6 was an unusual one for our game picks, not only in 2024 but also every other recent season. Chalk ruled, as favorites dominated, either home or away, and also took care of business with the number to prove without a doubt they were the better teams.
It’s unlikely that everything will play to form in Week 7, given that in most weeks this season there have big underdogs pulling off significant upsets. But there also are several intriguing “pick ’em” contests with the spreads being negligible.
Here’s breaking down the latest slate and making a call on 15 more games.
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(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
MORE: Week 7 Power Rankings | Week 7 NFL picks
NFL picks against the spread for Week 7
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Game of Midweek: Broncos at Saints (-1, 37.5 o/u)
Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
Sean Payton gets to coach against Dennis Allen back in New Orleans. His offense is overachieving with Bo Nix, while Allen’s defense is underachieving, giving up 51 points and almost 600 yards at home Sunday vs. the Buccaneers. The Broncos don’t have the same pop as the Bucs, but they can still move it well enough with Nix for the minor upset, as he also has the rookie QB edge over Spencer Rattler.
Pick: Broncos win 20-17.
MORE: Grading Spencer Rattler’s starting debut | Chris Olave injury update
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Game of the Week: Chiefs at 49ers (-1, 46.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The Chiefs face a 49ers’ defense that has more holes than usual, and their defense has been nasty, containing the run and also being strong in downfield coverage. Patrick Mahomes will be in another tight passing duel with Brock Purdy, but the Super Bowl champions will kick into extra gear, having an advantageous Andy Reid bye ahead of the rematch.
Pick: Chiefs win 24-23 and cover the spread.
MORE: Jordan Mason injury update | 49ers RB depth chart
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Lock of the Week: Bills (-8.5, 42 o/u) over Titans
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Bills’ defense has run into some tough spots of late, and Josh Allen has likewise seen some tough pass defenses. This is a get-well game at home, as Tennessee struggles through the air with Will Levis and can be pushed into abandoning the run at some point. The Titans’ defense has plenty of holes for OC Joe Brady to exploit as the Bills lean more on the rushing attack.
Pick: Bills win 33-13 and cover the spread.
MORE: Calvin Ridley goes on NSFW tirade after catch-less game | Will Levis takes out ball boy on scramble
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Upset of the Week: Patriots (+5.5, 43 o/u) over Jaguars
Sunday 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network
The Patriots have renewed confidence with Drake Maye at quarterback, unlocking their key passing weapons at just the right time before seeing Jacksonville’s putrid pass defense in London. The Jaguars have been in an absolute fog in coverage all over the field. Whether they use Trevor Lawrence or Maye’s first-round QB predecessor Mac Jones, the Jaguars will lose a high-scoring affair that might be the real last game for Doug Pederson.
Pick: Patriots win 27-24.
MORE PATRIOTS: Grading Drake Maye’s starting debut
MORE JAGS: Travis Etienne injury update | Why Jaguars are playing twice in London | Jaguars S says team showed ‘a lot of quit’
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Seahawks at Falcons (-2.5, 50.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Seahawks are in trouble at 3-3 as the schedule stays unfavorable. The run defense continues to have major issues, and it’s putting major pressure on Geno Smith in trail mode with a high-volume passing game. The Falcons will run well and open up downfield shots for Kirk Cousins as they win again to take more control of the NFC South.
Pick: Falcons win 30-27 and cover the spread.
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Bengals (-5, 43 o/u) at Browns
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Bengals aren’t far from getting back in the wild-card discussion, and they won’t take their reeling cross-state rivals lightly in the Battle of Ohio. Joe Burrow can pick apart a broken-down downfield pass defense while Deshaun Watson will face too much heat from Cincinnati’s revamped pass rush.
Pick: Bengals win 27-20 and cover the spread.
WEEK 7 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/ST | Kickers
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Texans at Packers (-3, 47 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Jordan Love vs. C.J. Stroud makes for a fun duel between two rising star QBs. The key will be avoiding turnovers for both players — Love by not forcing things and Stroud by being wary of the Packers’ aggressive ballhawks. Give the edge to Green Bay at home, as their defense is making more key plays than Houston’s with home field also being a big factor.
Pick: Packers win 30-23 and cover the spread.
MORE: Dontayvion Wicks injury update
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Dolphins at Colts (-3.5, 43.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Dolphins will be without Tua Tagovailoa (head), so they’ll need to lean a lot on the rushing attack and defense to stay alive in the AFC wild-card race. The Colts, however, can pose problems with a powerful offensive line and running game, even without Anthony Richardson (oblique) and/or Jonathan Taylor (ankle).
Pick: Colts win 23-20 but fail to cover the spread.
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Lions at Vikings (-1.5, 49.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Lions are relentless and explosive with their offense, as their run-oriented balance keeps leading to big-time passing. The Vikings can handle the run and then get into position to rush the passer and force takeaways for DC Brian Flores. The problem is not having enough offensive answers or ground support to keep up on the scoreboard.
Pick: Lions win 24-20.
MORE: Aidan Hutchinson injury update | Top trade targets to replace Hutchinson
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Eagles (-3, 43 o/u) at Giants
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Eagles have been fighting through their offensive funk to be right there in the NFC playoff mix behind the surprising Commanders. Jalen Hurts got going with his best receivers last week, and it helped that the defense eased the burden. Philly stays hot here on a short division road trip.
Pick: Eagles win 24-17 and cover the spread.
MORE EAGLES: Nick Sirianni explains why he talked trash to home fans after Week 6 win
MORE GIANTS: Will Giants fire Brian Daboll?
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Raiders at Rams (-5.5, 43.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
The Rams are coming off a bye and are hopeful about having game-changing receiver Cooper Kupp (ankle) back for this matchup. They also can run all over the Raiders with a rested Kyren Williams. The Rams’ pass defense also gets a break vs. Aidan O’Connell, now without Davante Adams.
Pick: Rams win 27-14 and cover the spread.
MORE: Maxx Crosby explains why he shoved Raiders assistant coach vs. Steelers
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Panthers at Commanders (-7.5, 52 o/u)
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
The Commanders will move the ball on the Panthers any which way all day long. Jayden Daniels will find his receivers streaking downfield, and there also will be plenty of running room when his team wins up front. The Panthers can do some damage on Washington’s pass defense, but eventually, the pass rush keeps Andy Dalton down.
Pick: Commanders win 38-21 and cover the spread.
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Jets at Steelers (-1.5, 36.5 o/u)
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
The Steelers’ defense had a get-well game with T.J. Watt leading the way in Las Vegas. They’ll come home to chase a jackpot with Watt flying off the edge on Aaron Rodgers. The Steelers can’t pass on the Jets, but they won’t mind embracing another run-heavy game plan with Justin Fields (or Russell Wilson) and Najee Harris.
Pick: Steelers win 20-17 and cover the spread.
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Ravens (-3.5, 48.5 o/u) at Buccaneers
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC
The Ravens have been sizzling with their entire offense, as Derrick Henry has served as the closing, scoring machine. Lamar Jackson keeps expanding the passing repertoire with downfield play to wideouts and tight ends alike. The Buccaneers’ running game will cool off, but fellow Heisman winner and former AFC North QB Baker Mayfield will be up to the task of keeping his team in the game vs. a weak secondary.
Pick: Ravens win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
MORE RAVENS: Comparing Jayden Daniels’ and Lamar Jackson’s Week 6 stats
MORE BUCCANEERS: Baker Mayfield reacts to Texas players planting flag in Oklahoma jersey
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Chargers (-2.5, 43.5 o/u) at Cardinals
Monday 8:45 p.m. ET, ESPN+
The Chargers got through Jim Harbaugh’s health scare and were well-coached and prepared to rip into the Broncos in Week 6. They won’t mess with a winning formula of running game and defense, but they also know it’s important to keep spreading Justin Herbert’s wings to throw more downfield with his foot injury resolved.
Pick: Chargers win 24-17 and cover the spread.
MORE CHARGERS: Jim Harbaugh briefly exits vs. Broncos with heart issue
MORE CARDINALS: Marvin Harrison Jr. injury update | James Conner injury update
Stats of the Week
- Week 6 record straight up: 13-1
- Week 6 record against the spread: 8-6
- Season-to-date straight up: 61-31
- Season-to-date against the spread: 49-42