No. 1 Alabama meets No. 11 in the SEC championship game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
The matchup starts at 8 p.m. and will be televised on CBS. This marks the 10th SEC championship meeting between the Crimson Tide and Gators. Alabama (10-0) might be in the College Football Playoff no matter what happens. The Crimson Tide rank third in the FBS with 49.5 points per game, and Mac Jones, Najee Harris and DeVonta Smith are all legitimate Heisman Trophy candidates. This is a chance for coach Nick Saban to win his seventh SEC championship with Alabama.
Florida (8-2) has a quick turnaround after an upset loss to LSU this week. Kyle Trask leads the nation in passing yards (3,717) and touchdowns (40), and this is a chance to make a definitive Heisman Trophy statement. The Gators are back on this stage in Dan Mullen’s third season.
There are scenarios where multiple SEC teams can get in the College Football Playoff. This matchup will determine which ones.
Here’s everything to know about betting on Alabama vs. Florida, including updated odds, trends and our prediction for the 2020 SEC championship game.
Alabama vs. Florida odds
- Spread: Alabama -17
- Over/under: 74
- Moneyline: Alabama -590, Florida +425
Alabama opened the week as a 17-point favorite to win the 2020 SEC championship. The moneyline for Florida is +425, which means a winning $100 bet on the Wildcats would pay $425 in profit. The over/under is 74 points for Alabama vs. Florida.
Alabama vs. Florida all-time series
Alabama leads the all-time series 27-14, and the Crimson Tide have won the last six meetings. The Crimson Tide have a 5-4 advantage in the previous nine SEC championship matchups:
|Date||SEC championship game|
|Dec. 3, 2016||No. 1 Alabama 54, No. 15 Florida 16|
|Dec. 5, 2015||No. 2 Alabama 29, No. 18 Florida 15|
|Dec. 5, 2009||No. 2 Alabama 32, No. 1 Florida 13|
|Dec. 6, 2008||No. 2 Florida 31, No. 1 Alabama 20|
|Dec. 4, 1999||No. 7 Alabama 34, No. 5 Florida 7|
|Dec. 7, 1996||No. 4 Florida 45, No. 11 Alabama 30|
|Dec. 3, 1994||No. 6 Florida 24, No. 3 Alabama 23|
|Dec. 4, 1993||No. 9 Florida 28, No. 16 Alabama 13|
|Dec. 5, 1992||No. 2 Alabama 28, No. 12 Florida 21|
Three trends to know
— Alabama is 8-2 against the spread in 2020, and the Crimson Tide has covered in each of their last five games. The Crimson Tide has outscored opponents 253-36 in that stretch.
— The Gators are 4-6 against the spread and have failed to cover each of the last four weeks. Florida is 1-0 against the spread as an underdog this season and are 6-2 against the spread as an underdog since Mullen took over in 2018.
— The Crimson Tide have won their last six SEC championship appearances under Saban. Alabama has won those games by an average of 18.5 points per game. That is in line with the 17-point spread.
Three things to watch
— Najee Harris and tempo. The Alabama running back leads the FBS with 22 rushing touchdowns, and it will be interesting to see how the Crimson Tide uses him to dictate tempo. Florida allows 142.4 rushing yards per game – but that’s on just 3.9 yards per carry. Expect Alabama offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian to feed Harris early to set up the big-play passing game.
— Trask’s completion percentage. Texas A&M and Ole Miss shredded Alabama’s pass defense early in the season for an average of 367 passing yards with five touchdowns. Trask has more talent around him with Kadarius Toney and Kyle Pitts, who missed last week’s game with an undisclosed injury. The Crimson Tide have not allowed a passing touchdown in five games and are limiting quarterbacks to a 56.9 completion percentage. Trask is at 70.2 percent for the season. That number has to stay in that range for the Gators to have a chance.
— DeVonta Smith’s big plays. While the Heisman focus is on Trask and Jones, Smith could make an impact on the race with another monster game. He had 11 receiving touchdowns in a four-game stretch before last week’s game against Arkansas, where the big play was a punt return for a touchdown. Smith averages 16 yards per reception and will be the biggest test for Florida’s secondary.
Stat that matters
74.6 – In Alabama’s two biggest games of the season – the victories against Texas A&M and Georgia – Jones was 44 of 59 (74.6 percent) with eight total touchdowns and two interceptions. He threw a pick in both games, and he might make an early mistake against the Gators. Jones, however, has stayed in complete control all season. Even with Trask on the other side, that composure will be a difference maker for Alabama.
Alabama vs. Florida prediction
Alabama jumps out to a 14-0 lead behind two quick touchdown passes from Jones, part of a trend where the Crimson Tide outscores opponents 118-27 in the first quarter. Trask settles down, and Florida cuts to a 10-point game at the half. The third quarter is even, but Alabama closes the door in the fourth quarter behind Harris, and Jones adds one more touchdown pass for the Heisman voters to think about. The Crimson Tide don’t score 50 points, but they lock up the No. 1 seed in the CFP.
Final score: Alabama 44, Florida 24