France vs Morocco prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for World Cup 2022 semifinal

By | December 12, 2022

Defending champions against underdog challenger, a true David vs. Goliath meeting as France, the 2018 title holders take on Morocco, the first African nation to ever reach the World Cup semifinals.

Les Bleus managed to squeak by a tough challenge from England thanks to Harry Kane’s late missed penalty, but they’ll have a very different challenge on their hands up next.

Morocco sport a patchwork squad, beset with injuries, but the Atlas Lions have banded together to sport exceptional and surprising depth. They are boosted by a quasi-home field advantage, as their fans have flocked to Qatar in droves to create a stunning atmosphere.

Will France move to the precipice of a World Cup double, or will Morocco graduate from history-maker to true title contender?

MORE: Morocco’s run to the World Cup semifinals is no fluke

France vs. Morocco odds

Once again, Morocco face long underdog odds. That has not fazed them to this point, as Morocco have been at least 3/1 underdogs in every single positive result they’ve achieved so far.

They have also been extremely defensive, and thus the odds suggest they will struggle to find the back of the net, yet that didn’t stop them from hitting Portugal on the counter. France, for all their offensive firepower, still can’t overwhelm the organization of Morocco’s defense which swings the under in heavy favor.

Odds via BetMGM (USA), Sports Interaction (Canada), SkyBet (UK), and Ladbrokes (Australia).

  BetMGM Sports
SkyBet Ladbrokes
France win -185 1.51 1/2 8/15
Draw +290 3.76 29/10 27/10
Morocco win +550 6.71 6/1 6/1
Both teams
to score Y / N
+130 / -190 2.29 / 1.48 11/8, 8/15 27/20, 8/15
Over / Under
2.5 goals
+120 / -165 2.23 / 1.58 5/4, 4/7 5/4, 4/7
France -0.5 -200 1.50
Morocco +0.5 +140 2.47
France advance -450 1.22 1/5 2/9
Morocco advance +275 3.85 10/3 29/10

France vs. Morocco: 3 things to know

France vs. Morocco team news

Injury news

The pre-tournament absences of Paul PogbaN’Golo Kante, Mike MaignanChristopher NkunukPresnel Kimpembe, and Karim Benzema haven’t proven nearly as meaningful as previously believed. Olivier Giroud has replaced Benzema as prime goalscorer with aplomb, while Theo Hernandez has stepped in for his stricken brother Lucas Hernandez at left-back well after the latter’s torn ACL in the group stage opener.

Morocco have a number of issues on the injury front. The most concerning is to captain Romain Saiss, who was reportedly carrying an injury into the Portugal game and had to be stretchered off in the second half. Noussair Mazraoui and Naif Aguerd both missed the Portugal match with injuries of their own. However, Morocco’s strength has been in their surprising depth. Yahia Attiyat Allah filled the massive shoes of Mazraoui’s absence admirably, while Badr Banoune came on for Saiss and held the line.

Players missing for France vs Morocco due to disciplinary suspension

Nation Player suspended Type Card 2
France NONE
Morocco Walid Cheddira Red Card (YC x2)  

MORE: Full injury tracker for all 32 teams at the 2022 FIFA World Cup

France vs. Morocco key stats

  • Antoine Griezmann has created the most chances (17) of any player at the 2022 World Cup, and has the highest expected assists (2.94 xA). The next closest player on the expected assists chart is Jamal Musiala at 1.86.
  • Achraf Hakimi has attempted the most tackles (19) of any player at the World Cup, and has the second-most successful tackles (15). His full-back teammate Noussair Mazraoui has 13 tackles and eight successful, putting him sixth and seventh respectively.
  • No team has made back-to-back World Cup finals since Brazil in 1994 and 1998, while no team has repeated as World Cup champion since Brazil in 1958 and 1962. No consecutive World Cup finals in history have ever featured the same two teams.

France vs. Morocco match facts

  • Date: Wednesday, December 14
  • Kickoff Time: 2:00 pm ET / 7:00 pm GMT / 6:00 am AEDT (Thu, Dec. 15)
  • Location: Al Bayt Stadium
  • Official: Cesar Ramos (Mexico)

France vs. Morocco prediction

  • Moneyline lean: France (-185)
  • Against the spread lean: France -0.5 (-200)
  • Score prediction: France 1-0 Morocco

It is going to be brutally difficult for France to break Morocco down, that much is clear.

Despite many of us doubting Morocco’s ability to keep Portugal off the board, the African nation only went and blanked their European foes across 90 minutes despite a host of injuries to key players. Therefore, we’re no longer doubting the ability of this quasi-home team to perform.

It will take a Herculean effort to get past Morocco’s organization and structure, but this is no green squad France possess. While Portugal and Spain deployed young, inexperienced sides against Morocco who struggled to adapt in a pressure situation, France will know exactly how to attack their opponents.

At the risk of doubting Morocco a third time, it’s tough to imagine the Atlas Lions advancing to the World Cup final. An early goal will be key for France here, as the longer they go without scoring, the more panic will set in and the more Morocco will grow in belief.

France vs. Morocco: best bet

  • Pick: Half with most goals: 2H
  • Odds: +100 (BetMGM)

This bet just keeps getting better and better as the World Cup goes on, and yet the odds remain the same throughout. France especially have been a team that promotes second-half scoring, as every game but their opener against Australia has featured more goals in the second half. Most recently, we saw France coast through the first half against England, conceding long stretches of harmless possession.

Morocco have swung slightly towards the first half as they defend with ferocity after the break, but they’ve also benefitted from opposing teams failing to convert chances. They have conceded right about 2.20 xG in both halves, but opponents have finished at a rate below 1.0 xGOT on both.

This should be a much more exciting game after the break.

France vs. Morocco prop bet

  • Pick: Score band: 1-0, 2-0, or 3-0
  • Odds: +140 (BetMGM)
  • Pick: Score band: 2-1, 3-1, or 4-1
  • Odds: +400 (BetMGM)

Up until now, Morocco have done sensationally to expose other teams’ weaknesses, particularly in the mental aspect of the game. The Atlas Lions are spectacular at grinding their opponent down until there’s only frustration left.

France are a different breed. Les Bleus have taken punches from Australia, Denmark, Tunisia, and England only to bounce back from each, whether in that particular match or the next one. This France team always gets back up.

For this prop bet, we’re taking separate bets (not parlayed together) on two different bands of three correct scores. This hedges our knowledge that Morocco can score against a team like France that plays an open style of attacking football. Portugal does similarly, and Youssef En-Nesyri made them pay. Still, France should find a way through Morocco and come out on top. The only way this pair of bets fails to return a profit is if either France fail to win in 90 minutes, or they concede more than once to Morocco. Either would represent a colossal upset.

France vs. Morocco flier bet

  • Pick: Kylian Mbappe to score a goal assisted by Antoine Griezmann
  • Odds: +700 (FanDuel)

Kylian Mbappe is the best player in the world right now, and Antoine Griezmann has been the best chance creator in the World Cup. You don’t have to overthink this one. But if you want more, here you go.

Since he went across the entire Euro 2020 tournament without scoring, Mbappe has not gone consecutive international appearances without scoring. He has bagged 16 goals in those 16 games, including multiple goals on four occasions, with two of those in this World Cup. He failed to score against England, with Aurelien Tchouameni and Olivier Giroud doing the damage.

Meanwhile, Griezmann is serving up goals on a platter this World Cup. He has the most chances created (17), while his tournament-leading 2.83 expected assists is more than 1 full xA higher than anyone else. Of Mbappe’s five goals so far, he’s had one assist from Griezmann, and at 7/1 odds, you’d better believe there’s value in this duo striking again.

France vs. Morocco live stream, TV channel

MORE: Watch every World Cup match live with fuboTV (U.S.-only free trial)

This second semifinal clash will be played at the Al Bayt Stadium. Here’s how you can watch all the action in some of the major global territories.

  Date Time TV Channel Streaming
USA Wed, Dec. 14 14:00 ET Fox,
Fox Sports site/app,
Telemundo Deportes site/app,
Canada Wed, Dec. 14 14:00 ET TSN 1, CTV, RDS (French) TSN site/app, CTV website,
RDS app
UK Wed, Dec. 14 19:00 GMT ITV/STV or BBC One (TBC) ITVX/STV Player, BBC iPlayer/BBC Sport website (TBC)
Australia Thu, Dec. 15 06:00 AEDT SBS SBS On Demand
India Thu, Dec. 15 00:30 IST Sports 18 Voot, JioTV
Hong Kong Thu, Dec. 15 03:00 HKT Now TV (Ch. 616, 618), ViuTV Now TV
Malaysia Thu, Dec. 15 03:00 MYT RTM TV2, Astro FIFA World Cup 1 Astro GO, RTMKlik
Singapore Thu, Dec. 15 03:00 SGT Channel 5, StarHub TV FIFA World Cup, Singtel FIFA World Cup 141 Singtel TV GO, CAST,
StarHub TV+, MeWatch
New Zealand Thu, Dec. 15 08:00 NZDT Sky Sport 7 beIN Sports Sky Go, Sky Sport NOW