NFL picks, predictions for Week 11: Chiefs escape Chargers again; Eagles curb Colts; Bears upset Falcons

By | November 15, 2022

What will the Vikings do for an encore? 

That is the question after Minnesota won a seventh consecutive one-score game in the 33-30 thriller at Buffalo. That is a candidate for the “Game of the Year,” and the Vikings are enjoying a charmed season with a 8-1 record. 

How will that play out against Dallas (6-3)? The Cowboys have split four road games this season, and the roller-coaster ride with Dak Prescott and coach Mike McCarthy continued last week in a 31-28 loss to the Packers. This is without question the game to watch in the NFC in Week 11, and Tony Pollard could be a difference maker against a middle-of-the-pack Minnesota run defense. 

It also is one of three games between teams with winning records. The Jets (6-3) face the Patriots at 1 p.m. ET, and the Sunday Night Football matchup features the Chiefs (7-2) and Chargers (5-4). 

We picked road teams in two of these three matchups, which are the highlight of the Week 11 schedule. A look at our track record this season: 

Record: 86-63-1

Here are our straight-up picks for Week 11 (odds courtesy of BetMGM): 

POWER RANKINGS: Chiefs overtake sliding Bills atop AFC; Vikings, Dolphins, Bucs make big gains for Week 11

NFL picks, predictions for Week 11

  • Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers (-2.5) 

Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Prime Video 

The Packers hammered Tennessee 40-14 the last time they met at Lambeau Field on Dec. 27, 2020. Aaron Rodgers and Christian Watson connected for three TDs in Week 10, which kept their NFC playoff hopes alive. Tennessee’s offense has struggled, but Derrick Henry should feast against a Packers’ defense that allows 140.6 rushing yards per game. Tennessee wins on a walk-off field goal by Randy Bullock. 

Pick: Titans 23, Packers 20

  • Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3) 

Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX 

Justin Fields, who has 325 rushing yards the last two weeks, is drawing comparisons to Michael Vick. Will Fields, a Kennesaw, Ga., native, put on a show against Vick’s former team? Atlanta had a long week to bounce back from a Thursday Night Football loss against the Panthers. These are two of the three worst passing offenses in the NFL. Fields’ play-making on the run will make the difference. 

Pick: Bears 26, Falcons 23 

  • Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (-11.5) 

Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX 

The Ravens had a bye week, and that should help against the Panthers. Baltimore is 2-2 at home, and all of those games have been decided by four points or less. The Ravens are 27th in pass offense; one spot ahead of the Panthers. Will Lamar Jackson or P.J. Walker finds a rhythm through the air? The Panthers are 0-4 S/U on the road. Trust the home team. 

Pick: Ravens 32, Panthers 18 

Josh Allen

(Getty Images)

  • Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-9) 

Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS 

The Browns still have two games before Deshaun Watson returns from an 11-game suspension, and they are going to be brutal. Buffalo is coming off a loss, and Josh Allen will bounce back against a Cleveland defense that was torched by Miami for 39 points and 491 yards in Week 10. The Browns won the last meeting 19-16 in Allen’s second season in 2019. The Bills turn the tables. 

Pick: Bills 35, Browns 23

  • Washington Commanders (-2.5) at Houston Texans 

Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX 

The Commanders are on the fringe of the playoff picture, and they have won two road games this season. Houston does not have much outside a  solid rookie season from running back Dameon Pierce (772 yards, 3 TDs). The Texans are 0-4 ATS when they are an underdog of less than seven points. 

Pick: Commanders 20, Texans 16 

  • Philadelphia Eagles (-9) at Indianapolis Colts 

Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS

If Colts interim coach Jeff Saturday knocks the Eagles off, then will he be voted Coach of the Year? Jonathan Taylor resurfaced with 147 yards and a TD in Week 10, and that’s the recipe Saturday is going to ride with Philadelphia coming off a short week. It will work into the second half, but the Eagles remain unbeaten. Jalen Hurts hits A.J. Brown with the game-winning touchdown in the final minute. 

Pick: Eagles 27, Colts 20 

  • New York Jets at New England Patriots (-4) 

Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS

These teams met in Week 8, and the Patriots won 22-17 on the strength of five field goals by Nick Folk. The Jets had a bye week to enjoy the victory against Buffalo. Zach Wilson had a season-low 48.8% completion percentage in the first meeting against the Patriots. What will Wilson learn from that experience on the road against a Bill Belichick defense? 

Pick: Patriots 24, Jets 21 

  • Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-3) 

Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX

The Rams have lost three straight games, a stretch in which they have averaged 14.7 points per game. Now, Cooper Kupp might be out with an ankle injury. The Saints have averaged 11.5 points in back-to-back losses, and they have lost four of five. When two bad teams meet, anything can happen. This is a coin-flip game. 

Pick: Rams 22, Saints 17 

  • Detroit Lions at New York Giants (-3) 

Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX

The Lions have a chance for a rare three-game win streak, and their offense looks better when Amon-Ra St. Brown is healthy. New York is 3-1 S/U in home games this season, and all four have been decided by eight points or less. The Giants keep it moving in the right direction in a thriller. The Lions still can’t stop the run, and Saquon Barkley will have a huge game. 

Pick: Giants 28, Lions 27

Russell Wilson

(Getty Images)

  • Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5) 

Sunday, 4:05 p.m., FOX

It’s the Josh McDaniels bowl in a battle of the most disappointing teams of 2022. Denver has the top scoring defense in the NFL, and yet the offense has been miserable. The Raiders have won the last five in this rivalry, but the Broncos flip the script. 

Pick: Broncos 20, Raiders 18 

  • Dallas Cowboys (-1) at Minnesota Vikings

Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS

The Cowboys are favored against Minnesota, which continues to produce close-game victories. Kirk Cousins is 2-8 lifetime against Dallas, and that includes a 1-2 mark with Minnesota. Still, the strong running game with Dalvin Cook and connection with Justin Jefferson has gone a long way this season. All that said, the fact Dallas is favored makes us think Dak Prescott will bounce back on the road. 

Pick: Cowboys 30, Vikings 28 

  • Cincinnati Bengals (-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers 

Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS

The Steelers beat the Bengals 23-20 and are a different team with T.J. Watt on the field. The Bengals, however, are coming off a bye week. Joe Burrow will not throw four interceptions this time, and the running game behind Joe Mixon will be a difference maker. Cincinnati picks up its first AFC North victory of the season. 

Pick: Bengals 27, Steelers 21 

Patrick Mahomes

Getty Images

  • Kansas City Chiefs (-7) at Los Angeles Chargers 

Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC 

The Chiefs have scored 40-plus points in three of their four road games, and they have a chance to win a ninth straight game at the Chargers’ home field. Patrick Mahomes II maintains the hot hand, and the Chiefs continue to look like the team to beat in the AFC. 

Pick: Chiefs 31, Chargers 28

  • San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) at Arizona Cardinals 

Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN

The 49ers are rounding into shape as a playoff contender, and the tag-team backfield of Christian McCaffrey and Eli Mitchell combined for 32 carries for 127 yards against the Chargers in Week 10. San Francisco will continue to grind out wins against Arizona, which might be without Kyler Murray (hamstring) for another week. The Cardinals did sweep this series in 2021, but the 49ers are the better team this time. 

Pick: 49ers 31, Cardinals 24