NFL Week 8 Betting Guide: Spread, moneyline, over/under picks

By | October 30, 2020

At the beginning of the season, I never expected to be fading the Patriots, touting the Lions, and caring about the Packers/Vikings total in Week 8, but here we are! 

Every week, I break down my favorite bets while weaving in a preview of exclusive data from BetQL, a web and app platform that simplifies the research process for sports bettors by equipping them with real-time line movements, value bets of the day, and meaningful team trends. So far, my recommendations have gone 11-9.

Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker

Let’s take a look at three Week 8 bets you should consider making.

All data presented is as of Thursday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.

NFL Week 8 Betting Picks: Spread pick of the week

Bills (-4) vs. Patriots

Maybe Tom Brady knew what was coming. 

Now at 2-4, the Patriots find themselves in a must-win Week 8 battle against the AFC East-leading Bills, who are 5-2. After returning from his COVID-19 absence, Cam Newton has struggled mightily and even got benched last game due to his ineffectiveness. Now with Julian Edelman (knee) out and unproven second-year wideout N’Keal Harry questionable, there’s a chance that Newton will have these guys to throw to on Sunday: WRs Jakobi Meyers, Damiere Byrd, Gunner Olszewski, and Matthew Slater, RBs Damien Harris (questionable) James White, and Rex Burkhead, and TEs Ryan Izzo, Dalton Keene and Devin Asiasi. 

If you’re not a Patriots fan, there’s a solid chance you don’t know who anyone on that list is outside of White and Burkhead. 

While Newton’s ability to run the ball makes him dangerous, the threat of moving the ball through the air is what makes him effective on the ground. If his receivers can’t get separation, it’s going to be a long day for this offense once again. It’s weird saying this, but it’s very difficult to trust Bill Belichick’s team right now.

Per BetQL’s Public Betting Dashboard, 61 percent of total tickets wagered are backing the Bills vs. the spread.

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NFL Week 8 Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the week

Lions (+135) vs. Colts

Did you know the Lions could very well be 5-1 right now? They’re 3-3, but lost to the Bears 27-23 in Week 1 and fell to the Saints 35-29 in Week 4. While this organization has made a name for themselves by being a perennial laughingstock, could this finally be the year that they get over the hump?

It’s pretty clear that 38-year-old Philip Rivers isn’t bringing much to the table for the Colts. Through six games, he’s thrown seven touchdowns and six interceptions, and, per usual, he’s struggled on the road. The Colts have gone 1-2 away from Indy (losing to the Jaguars in Week 1 and Browns in Week 6), and in those games, Rivers has thrown two touchdowns and four interceptions for a 79.9 quarterback rating (compared to 108.7 at home). I like Detroit at home in this one.

WEEK 8 DFS: Best stacks | Best valuesLineup Builder

NFL Week 8 Betting Picks: Over/under pick of the week

Packers vs. Vikings: OVER 51 Points

Our model is listing this as a five-star bet (max value). While we aren’t projecting a crazy shootout like in Week 1 (43-34 Green Bay win), this is the best over/under bet of the week.

First, let’s touch on the Packers. Their 10-point dud a couple weeks ago against the Buccaneers was an outlier. Just look at these outputs in their other five games: 43, 42, 37, 30, and 35. Aaron Rodgers looks like a man on a mission and carved up this Vikings defense in Week 1. There’s no reason to expect that to be any different this time around. 

Sure, the Vikings are 1-5 and the Packers are 5-1. However, Minnesota is expected to get star running back Dalvin Cook back for this game and has put up 30-plus points twice this season, including in their Week 1 matchup against Green Bay. A run-first game script is usually thrown out the window when the Vikings get down early, and that’s a very plausible scenario in this one. 

Shockingly, 95 percent of total money wagered is backing the UNDER, per BetQL’s Sharp Picks Dashboard. However, our model has gone 14-4 on its five-star bets over the past two weeks, and the OVER is popping! Hammer it!

Head over to BetQL to see our model’s best bet, sharp data and much more for this game and every Week 8 contest! You can find all updated NFL lines, spreads, and odds at BetQL!