Using available touches, targets to help spot 2021 fantasy sleepers, busts

By | August 6, 2021
0 Comment

We all know that offseason signings, departures, and trades can have a big effect on the fantasy football values of players the following season, but sometimes it can all be theoretical and tough to quantify. It’s easy to say “Julio Jones is gone in Atlanta, so Calvin Ridley will be a WR1 and Russell Gage is a good sleeper,” but just what can we expect from both?

It’s a simple concept. When a target hog is moved from Team A to Team B, Team A’s remaining receivers are usually due for more targets while Team B’s receivers may see less. The concept remains true with tight end targets and running back touches. Again, easy to say, but are there other extenuating circumstances fantasy owners are forgetting to factor in?

Below, we’ll highlight each team’s biggest offseason acquisitions and departures among their skill players. How many touches and targets are now up for grabs/soon-to-be accounted for, and are there any other factors that might affect the potentially sleepers and busts that could result?

  • Arizona Cardinals

    Key additions: WR A.J. Green, WR Rondale Moore, RB James Conner
    Key departures: RB Kenyan Drake, WR Larry Fitzgerald, TE Dan Arnold

    The Cardinals offseason moves don’t change much at the top of the WR room, with DeAndre Hopkins still dominating targets. However, with Larry Fitzgerald’s 72 targetsneedingto be replaced,Moore,Christian Kirk,and Greenare all in the running to take some of thatload. It’s not clear how the target share will play out, but those are the main contenders.

    Even with the addition of Conner, Chase Edmonds looks primed for more than the 164 touches he had last year. He looks to take over forDrake, who amounted 270 total touches as the feature back in the offense. Drake ranked fourth in the NFL in red-zone carries (56), where Conner is likely to take over.

    Maxx Williams’ mere 10 targets in ’20 should see somewhat of a bump, with Dan Arnold’s departure leaving 45 targets at the position.

  • Atlanta Falcons

    Key additions: RB Mike Davis, TE Kyle Pitts, RB Cordarrelle Patterson, RB Javian Hawkins, RB Caleb Huntley
    Key departures: RB Todd Gurley, WR Julio Jones

    While Jones missed nearly half the season, he netted 69 targets. If he continued that pace over 16 games, it would’ve been in the neighborhood of 120 targets.In eight career games without Jones, Calvin Ridley has averaged 11.1 targets, 7.3 receptions, and 107 yards. He’s the most obvious choice to take on a bulk of targets.Pitts,Olamide Zaccheaus, and Russell Gage are next in line. Pitts’ presence will obviously hurt Hayden Hurst, who had 88 targets last year.

    Davis takes over forGurley, who saw 230 total touches last year. If Davis looks anything like he did while replacing Christian McCaffrey in Carolina, he should be in line for that kind of workload, though Patterson and rookies Huntley and Hawkinscould also be in the mix.

    The new coaching regime in Atlanta will have a big effect on things, too. Expect fewer passes and more running if the personnel can pull it off.

  • Baltimore Ravens

    Key additions: WR Rashod Bateman, WR Tylan Wallace, WR Sammy Watkins
    Key departures: RB Mark Ingram, WR Willie Snead

    Ingram posted a career-lowin targets (8) and carries (72) in 2020. We saw what the Ravens rushing attack looked like with him out of the picture late in the season. Ingram’searly-season carries will be divvied up between JKDobbins and Gus Edwards. They both saw around 150 touches last year, but Dobbins looks to take over the primary back role. Still, Edwardswill be involved.

    At last, the Ravens brought in help at the wide receiver position. Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews had 100 and 88 targets, respectively. Expect both ofthose figures to take a downturn with the addition of better secondary receivers.Rashod Bateman could become the primary target hog in the offense, but Andrews still has the most value of any of Baltimore’s pass-catchers.

  • Buffalo Bills

    Key additions: WR Emmanuel Sanders, RB Matt Breida
    Key departures: WR John Brown

    Sanders may complicate the situation for Cole Beasley (107 targets) and Gabriel Davis (62 targets). Brown (52 targets in nine games) is gone, but it’s assumed Sanders will command more targets. Since 2013, Sanders has received 90-plus targets in all but one seasons.

    At running back, the Bills gave both ZackMoss and Devin Singletaryat least 112carries last year. Singletary saw 50 targets. With the addition ofBreida, there’s a chance Buffalo continues its running back committee approach. This will be something to monitor throughout the early part of the season.

  • Carolina Panthers

    Key additions: QB Sam Darnold, WR Terrace Marshall Jr., WR David Moore, TE Dan Arnold, RB Christian McCaffrey (missed 13 games)
    Key departures: QB Teddy Bridgewater. RB Mike Davis, WR Curtis Samuel

    In 2020, Davis and Christian McCaffrey combined for only 89 targets. However, in ’19 McCaffrey commanded 142 targets. Heading into this season, it’s assumed he will get back to around that clip. Hubbard may see some work behind McCaffrey, but he won’t be particularly valuable unless CMC deals with injuries again.

    This leaves less on the bone for WRs. Last year, Robby Anderson, D.J. Moore, and Curtis Samuel all produced 100-plus carries/targets and 1,000-plus yards from scrimmage. It’s not likely the pace continues with McCaffrey being such a target hog. However, Samuel did leave behind 97 targets when he headed to Washington.Marshall and Moore are set as the prime candidates to pick some of those up.

    Arnold steps into the starting tight end role in Carolina, but again, the target competition likely means he won’t betoo much of a factor. Ian Thomas drew just 31 targets as the lead man last year.

  • Chicago Bears

    Key additions: QB Andy Dalton, QB Justin Fields, RB Damien Williams, WR Damiere Byrd, WR Marquise Goodwin
    Key departures: QB Mitchell Trubisky, WR Anthony Miller

    With Tarik Cohen (knee) sidelined for the majority of last season, David Montgomery took on atrue workhorse role in the Bears’ backfield, accumulating north of 300 touches However, it’s tough to see that carrying over into 2021. Cohen comes back healthy and Williams will surely eat into both of their touches. Williams saw a career-high 149 touches in ’20 with the Chiefs before opting out of last season.

    The Miller trade could prove fruitful for Darnell Mooney this season, but that’s not a guarantee. Miller was primarily used in the slot, drawing 76 targets. Mooney plays on the outside at the Z-receiver spotand drew more targets (97)than Miller last year. Goodwin, Byrd, and evenCohen will be the real ones to benefit, as they will each see snaps in the slot role.

  • Cincinnati Bengals

    Key additions: WR Ja’Marr Chase

    Key departures: WR A.J. Green, RB Giovani Bernard

    Green’s tenure is over in Cincinnati. Although he looked like a shell of his former self, he still commanded 104 targets in a pass-happy Bengal offensive attack. With Joe Mixon sidelinedBernard netted 59 targets and 124 carries. Obviously, there’s some room for a realignment of targets in 2021.

    Chase steps in as the assumed No.1 WR to Joe Burrow. Tyler Boyd (110 targets) and Tee Higgins (108) were neck and neck in ’20, but Higgins likely gains ground on him this year.This is a WR room that could produce similarlyto the 2020 Panthers receivers, with all three accumulating 1,000-plus yards. That being said, even with the addition of Chase, expect Higgins and Boyd to still see plenty of work.

    Mixon likely benefits the most from the offseason shake-up. Even when Mixon has been healthy and in the lineup, Bernard has been a highly targeted player relative to other backup running backs. With no obvious impactful back behind Mixon, he has the chance to take over the backfield as a true workhorse on all three downs.

  • Cleveland Browns

    Key additions: WR Anthony Schwartz, WR Odell Beckham Jr. (missed nine games last season)
    Key departures: N/A

    The Browns didn’t see much of a shake-up at their skill positions this offseason. While their wide receivers outside of Beckham and Jarvis Landry don’t see much action, Rashard Higgins is probably the biggest loser with the addition of Schwartz. Even in a season in which Beckman (knee) missed nine games, Higgins commanded just 52 targets. It’s hard to think he could even reach that number again with Beckham and Schwartz in the fold.

    Nick Chubb missed four games in 2020, setting Kareem Hunt up for some solid opportunity with 198 carries and 58 targets. He vastly outtouched Chubb, which won’t happen again. Still, he’ll be a factor on the ground and through the air, but he’s going to take a step back if Chubb can stay healthy.

  • Dallas Cowboys

    Key additions: QB Dak Prescott, TE Blake Jarwin (both returning from injury)
    Key departures: N/A

    This is another WR group that could easily feature three 1,000-yard receivers, especially with Prescott back at the helm.

    At tight end, Jarwin will battle with Dalton Schultz for the right to be the top target. They may end up cancelling each other out to an extent, limiting each other’s ceilings. Monitor this early in the season. Schultz ranked ninth in TE targets last year (89), so whoever is the primary guy has legit sleeper value.

  • Denver Broncos

    Key additions: QB Teddy Bridgewater,RB Javonte Williams, WR Courtland Sutton (back from injury)
    Key departures: RB Phillip Lindsay

    Just when it looked like Melvin Gordon was going to dominate the Broncos’ backfield, they traded up in the second round of the2021 NFL Draftto select Williams. Gordon saw 214 carries and 44 targets last season, pulling away from Lindsay (125 touches in 11 games) in the backfield. In the early part of this season, Gordon will still probably see a good amount of work. As Williams progresses more each week, he’ll slowly begin eating away at Gordon’s touches, deeply affecting his value.

    Sutton’s return from a knee injury means less targets for Tim Patrick (79 targets in 2020)and KJ Hamler (56 targets) (and possibly TE Noah Fant).Jerry Jeudy (113 targets) is still emerging, so we can’t say he’ll lose targets for sure, but Sutton’s return doesn’t figure to help much.

  • Detroit Lions

    Key additions: QB Jared Goff, RB Jamaal Williams, WR Breshad Perriman, WR Tyrell Wiliams, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR Geronimo Allen
    Key departures: QB Matthew Stafford, RB Kerryon Johnson, RB Adrian Peterson, WR Kenny Golladay, WR Marvin Jones, WR Danny Amendola

    What an offseason in Detroit. Their entire skill group saw a massive facelift, as well as their signal-caller. This season, they are tasked with replacing over 400 carries and receptions. Four-zero-zero.

    That’s a whole lot of work up for grabs. D’Andre Swift should be the workhorse running back this year, even withWilliams stepping in (think Aaron Jones and Williams).

    Tyrell Williams, Perriman, Quintez Cephus, St. Brown, and Allen have great opportunities in front of them. With a new QB, no one has any presumed advantage.

  • Green Bay Packers

    Key additions: RB Kylin Hill, WR Randall Cobb, WR Amari Rodgers, WR Devin Funchess
    Key departures: RB Jamaal Williams

    Bringing in Cobb and Rodgers complicates the target share situation. Behind Davante Adams,Marquez Valdez-Scantling and Allen Lazard have more competition around them. Lazard missed six games, drawing46 targets, while MVS got 63. We can expect their usage to go down, or at least for them to be less consistent.

    Hill projects as a satelliteback at the pro level. If Hill makes the team, he could be due for some light work in the passing game since AJ Dillon is more of a power back. If Aaron Jones were to miss time, Hill is likely solidly in the third-down back role. He has a path to playing time, so he’s worth monitoring.

  • Houston Texans

    Key additions: QB Tyrod Taylor, QB Davis Mills, RB Phillip Lindsay, RB Mark Ingram, WR Anthony Miller, WR Nico Collins, TE Brevin Jordan
    Key departures: RB Duke Johnson, WR Will Fuller V, WR Kenny Stills, WR Randall Cobb, TE Darren Fells, QB Deshaun Watson*

    With the uncertain future of Deshaun Watson, it’s worth monitoring Taylor and Mills. However, you shouldn’t expect too much success from either player if they are thrusted into the starting role.

    David Johnson (193 touches last year)will likely continue to lead the rushing attack, but he mightstep back into more of a committee role with the addition of Lindsay and Ingram. You can find some value in this backfield, but don’t expect a fantasy star.

    Fuller, Cobb, Duke Johnson, and Fells leave 186 targets behind. Collins andMiller are favorites to land a bunch of those, with Aikins and Jordan battling for targets out of the tight end spot.

  • Indianapolis Colts

    Key additions: QB Carson Wentz, RB Marlon Mack (return from injury), Parris Campbell (returning from injury)
    Key departures: QB Philip Rivers

    Jonathan Taylor might see a slight decrease in his workload with the return of Mack, but not enough to scare you off of him. He has fully passed up Mack as the lead dog in Indianapolis.

    At wide receiver, the room looks the same as it did last year, with the exception of Campbell. The Colts front office seems to love Campbell’s potential, so he could be on the receiving end of a fair share of targets.

    Wentz is already out because of a foot injury. His return is TBD, but either way, he’s unlikely to match Philip Rivers’ per-game volumn when he does return.

  • Jacksonville Jaguars

    Key additions: QB Trevor Lawrence, RB Travis Etienne, WR Marvin Jones
    Key departures: WR Keelan Cole, WR Chris Conley

    There’s a new era in Jacksonville, led by Urban Meyer and Lawrence. And new era with a new QB means a shakeup in a team’s target share.

    RB James Robinson emerged as an undrafted star last season, commanding an impressive 240 carries.Unfortunately, his underdog story could be coming to an abrupt ending. It’s not that Robinson won’t still be a factor in the offense, but his receiving work is almost certainly going to be diminished. Meyer has been quoted as saying Etienne was brought in to be the third-down back, so Robinson’s 60 targets in 2020 is likely to take a nosedive. And of course, their shiny new rookie is going to take a decent amount of carries, too.

    At wide receiver, any of the trio of Jones, Laviska Shenault Jr., and DJ Chark could lead the group in targets. Again, it’s something to monitor early.

  • Kansas City Chiefs

    Key additions: RB Jerick McKinnon
    Key departures: WR Sammy Watkins

    McKinnon isn’t likely to make an impact in the Chiefsideal world, but he’s just a CEH injury away from being a piece of the best offense in the league.

    At wide receiver, Byron Pringle, Demarcus Robinson, and Mecole Hardman are tasked with replacing 55 targets from Sammy Watkins in 2020.

  • Las Vegas Raiders

    Key additions: RB Kenyan Drake, WR John Brown, WR Willie Snead
    Key departures: RB Devontae Booker, WR Nelson Agholor

    Josh Jacobs is a likely loser from the Raiders offseason moves. Jacobs, who isn’t the most well-rounded RB, will likely lose a lot of his passing-game work fto Drake. In 2020, Jacobs saw 45 targets. Drake saw 31 in Arizona, but he had a superior receiving back in Chase Edmonds behind him. Drake has seasons of 48, 68, and 73 targets on his resume, and he looks to step into a 1A/1B backfield in Las Vegas.

    The target competition at wideout is wide open, but who knows how many targets that means with Darren Waller in the offense. Agholor leaves 82 targets behind with his move to New England.

  • Los Angeles Chargers

    Key additions: WR Josh Palmer, TE Jared Cook
    Key departures: TE Hunter Henry

    Palmer steps into LA with the chance to surpass Jalen Guyton as the No. 3 WR in a Justin Herbert-led offense. That’s exciting. Even though Guyton ran a route on over 90 percent of the Charger’s pass plays via PlayerProfiler he commanded just 55 targets. That said, the window is open for Palmer.

    Henry leaves behind 93 targets, with Cook and a combination of WRs likely to take them on.

  • Los Angeles Rams

    Key additions: QB Matthew Stafford, WR DeSean Jackson, WR Tutu Atwell, RB Jake Funk
    Key departures: QB Jared Goff, RB Cam Akers (Achilles’ injury), RB Malcolm Brown, WR Josh Reynolds, TE Gerald Everett

    It’s Stafford SZN in LA, and there’s plenty of weaponry at wideout.

    WithAkers lost for the season, Darrell Henderson may be in line to be the bonafide lead dog in the Rams’ backfield. Between Brown and Akers, 293 targets/carries are vacated from last season.

    Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods both commanded 120-plus targets last year, which is likely in line with what they’ll see this year. Behind them is where it gets interesting. Reynolds (81 targets) and Everett (61 targets) were the third- and fourth-most targeted Rams a season ago. Jackson, Van Jefferson, and Atwell will compete to grab some of those targets, while Tyler Higbee steps in as the undisputed No. 1 tight end in the offense.

  • Miami Dolphins

    Key additions: RB Malcolm Brown, WR Will Fuller V, WRJaylen Waddle, TE Hunter Long
    Key departures: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

    It’s finally Tua’s job for good in Miami with Fitzpatrick out of the way and targets are largely up for grabs.

    At running back, Myles Gaskin is the favorite to be the starter, but Brown has shown capable of stealing snaps while with the Rams.

    Wide receiver will be an interestingbattle. DeVante Parker (108 targets) and Mike Gesicki (85 targets) should see their targets dip a bit. This is the most talented receiver group Parker has played with, and he might get surpassed all together as the Dolphins No. 1 WR. Waddle and Fuller look to flush Jakeem Grant and Preston Williams out of the thick of the target share race, and in all likelihood, that will happen.

    The Dolphins drafted some competition at the tight end position for Gesicki. Although Gesicki is still going to be the starter in Miami, the new addition of pass-catchers will limit his usage.

  • Minnesota Vikings

    Key additions: WR Dede Westbrook, WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette
    Key departures: TE Kyle Rudolph

    Most notably, the Vikings moved on from Rudolph after his long stint with the team. However, he already saw a career low in targets/game last year with 3.08.Smith Jr. began to replace him as the lead tight end. In 2021, he can officiallly take over. Smith Jr saw 43 targetsand looks to improve on that with the Rudolph out of town.

    Behind Justin Jefferson (125 targets) and Adam Thielen (108 targets), targets are up for grabs. Westbrook, Smith-Marsette, and Chad Bebe are in line to compete for them. However, there likely won’t be a ton of volume behind the trio of Smith Jr., Thielen, and Jefferson.

  • New England Patriots

    Key additions: QB Mac Jones, RB Rhmondre Stevenson, WR Nelson Agholor, WR Kendrick Bourne, TE Jonnu Smith, TE Hunter Henry
    Key departures: RB Rex Burkhead. WR Damiere Byrd, WR Julian Edelman

    The Patriots retooled their offense this offseason, most notably at tight end and quarterback. They added a bunch of players who drew a combined 300-plus targets while losing around 160 (Another 57 if If N’Keal Harry is traded)

    It’s unclear whether Smith or Henry will sit atop the tight end depth chart, but they should collectively be among the most targeted tight end position groups in the league.

    Agholor and Jakobi Meyers fight for the right to be the No. 1 WR in the offense. However, this should be a low-volume passing attack.

    Stevenson is listed because of the Patriots’ well-documented history of using severalrunning backs throughout the season. He’s worth rostering in deep leagues because you never know when it will be his turn to take a lead role, which can happen any given week.

  • New Orleans Saints

    Key additions: WR Chris Hogan
    Key departures:QB Drew Brees, WR Emmanuel Sanders, TE Jared Cook, TE Josh Hill

    Sanders and Cook leave behind 82 and 60 targets, respectively. Michael Thomas (ankle) is expected to miss time once again this seasonand is likely to be banged up even when he does play.

    Enter Marquez Callaway and Tre’Quan Smith. While Thomas is out, they both have a case to be the No. 1 WR in the offense. Hogan is worth monitoringbecause he could see a decent number of targets while Thomas heals. Adam Trautman steps solidly in the starting tight end role and has every opportunity to command a large target share.

    Remember, for the first time since 2005, the Saints will rollout someone other than Drew Brees in Week 1. With a new face at QB, everyone has a new chance to earn the trust of the starter, whether it be Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill.

  • New York Giants

    Key additions: RB Devontae Booker, WR Kenny Golladay, WR KaDarius Toney, TE Kyle Rudolph, RB Saquon Barkley (returning from injury)
    Key departures: RB Wayne Gallman, WR Golden Tate

    Most notably at wide receiver, Tate leaves 52 targets behind with his departure from the team. However, expect the target share to see a massive overhaul forNew York in2021. Darius Slayton (96 targets) and Sterling Shepard (90 targets) will see their figures dip with the added talent in the WR room.

    Additionally, Barkley’s return from a knee injury will shake things up in the receiving game, too. as he’ll be in like for 80-plus targets. Whenever you add proven vetswho usually command big targets, the situation gets complicated for everyone else. Add in a first-round rookie, and you get an all-out war for targets.

    If Barkley’s injury misfortune continues, Devontae Booker looks to be the set-in-stone replacement.

  • New York Jets

    Key additions: QB Zach Wilson, RB Michael Carter, RB Tevin Coleman, WR Corey Davis, WR Elijah Moore, WR Keelan Cole, TE Tyler Kroft
    Key departures: WR Breshad Perriman, RB Frank Gore

    The Jets are among one of the teams that last year’s target figure likely won’t mean much for this year.

    There’s a new QB, two new RBs, and three new WRs. Withthat being said, the target share is completely up in the air in 2021. Again, it’s something to read and react to.

    Gore’s departure leaves open 187 rushing attempts from last year. Carter figures to replace a lot of them, but Coleman will be involved, too, making both interesting early-middle/middle-round picks.

  • Philadelphia Eagles

    Key additions: RB Kenny Gainwell, RB Kerryon Johnson,WR DeVonta Smith
    Key departures: QB Carson Wentz, WR DeSean Jackson, WR Alshon Jeffery.

    The Eagles’ wide receiver room was decimated by injury and a lack of success in 2020. When Greg Ward leads your team in targets (79), there’s clearly an issue.

    Smith has proven over the course of his college career that he’s a ball magnet. In his Heisman campaign in 2020, he compiled a ridiculous 142 targets. He should step in on Day 1 as the target hog. Behind him, look for Jalen Reagor to improve upon his 54 targets from a season ago. The Eagles’ ideal situation would be Smith and Reagor as the No. 1 and 2 receivers in the offense.

    At tight end, Dallas Goedert seems poised to take over as the lead tight end. Zach Ertz (72 targets) had a narrow edge on Goedert (65 targets) in 2020.

    Gainwell likely eats into some of Miles Sanders’ receiving work, and that should be taken into consideration in your drafts.

  • Pittsburgh Steelers

    Key additions: RB Najee Harris, TE Pat Freiermuth
    Key departures: RB James Conner

    At the top of the Steelers’ pass-catching pecking order, Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson, and JuJu Smith-Schuster all netted over 100 targets, with Eric Ebron settling in at 91 targets.

    While the passing volume will still be there, they should all see somewhat of a dip. Harris’ receiving profile is far superior to Conner’s, and we can expect Harris to see a lot more than Conner’s 43 targets from a season ago.

    Ebron’s figure should dramatically drop with Freiermuth stepping in to compete.

    Bottom line — a few less targets to WRs and TEs and more targets and carries for RBs.

  • San Francisco 49ers

    Key additions: QB Trey Lance, RB Trey Sermon, RB Wayne Gallman, RB Elijah Mitchell, WR Mohamed Sanu
    Key departures: RB Jerick McKinnon, RB Tevin Coleman, WR Kendrick Bourne, TE Jordan Reed

    The 49ers have famously used the ‘RBs don’t matter’ approachfor the past few seasons. They ride the hot hand and don’t declare allegianceto a particular running back.

    Last season, Raheem Mostert (104 attempts), Jeff Wilson (126 attempts), and Jerick McKinnon (81 attempts) all saw lead-back opportunities. Some of this was due to injury, but some was just their offensive philosophy. Subtract McKinnon and add in Sermon,Gallman, and Mitchell. It will be a complicated situation to figure out, but Mostert and Sermon should get first crack at lead-back duties.

    With that being said, San Francisco’s RB touches are very fluid week-to-week. It’s a frustrating position to figure out for fantasy and limits all of the RBs’ ceilings.

    Between Bourne, McKinnon, and Reed, 166 targets are left behind. Deebo Samuel (nine games missed last year), Brandon Aiyuk (4), and George Kittle (8) are the obvious choices to pick up the load. Sanu and Jalen Hurd are the sleepers to be the fourth man in the pecking order.

  • Seattle Seahawks

    Key additions: RB Rashad Penny (coming back from injury), WR D’Wayne Eskridge, TE Gerald Everett
    Key departures: RB Carlos Hyde, WR David Moore, TE Jacob Hollister, TE Greg Olsen

    Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf drew 132 and 129 targets, respectively, a season ago, but what’s next after them?

    Some combination of Chris Carson,Everett,Eskridge, and Freddie Swainshould step into the first two options after the two stud receivers.

    Seattle lost 77 TE targets between Olsen and Hollister, so if Everett can assert himself as the locked-in No. 1 tight end, he has the opportunity to make noise.

    Last year, Moore charted 47 targets, which is where Swain and/or Eskridge come into play. Whoever wins the battle at No. 3 wide receiver will be worth a deep-league roster spot.

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    Key additions: RB Giovani Bernard, TE O.J. Howard (returning from injury)
    Key departures: N/A

    The Buccanneers are playing a good old-fashioned game of ‘run in back’ in 2021. After their Super Bowl victory, they returned all 22 starters.

    While it might seem unfair to the rest of the league, it’s helpful in figuring out which guys to target in fantasy. At wide receiver, the answer is all of them. Target all of them. Antonio Brown should be more of a factor with more than eight games, so that may drop Mike Evans’ (109)and Chris Godwin’s (84) per-game targets a bit, though Godwin missed four games last year, his totals will still go up.

    At RB, the Bucs will likely do something similar to the 49ers — mix it up week-to-week. Fournette and Jones look to be the lead backs, but Bernard’s receiving acumen might put him in a James White-like role.

    O.J. Howard’s return from an Achilles’ injury should likely keep Rob Gronkowski from matching his 77-target threshold from a season ago, but Gronk’s obvious chemistry with Tom Brady will keep him fantasy relevant at such a scarce position.

  • Tennessee Titans

    Key additions: WR Julio Jones, WR Josh Reynolds
    Key departures: WR Corey Davis, WR Adam Humphries,TE Jonnu Smith

    The Tennessee offense lost 192 targets between Davis, Humphries, and Smith. No need to fear, Julio Jones is here!

    Jones and Reynolds should easily fill the space left behind by Davis and Humphries, while Anthony Firkser looks to take on some of the tight end targets (albeit not 65 like Smith in 2020).

    Expect Jones and A.J. Brown to see a similar number of targets, potentially 100-pluseach if the Titans opt to pass at a higher clip. With minimal targets allocated to RBs, Brown and Jones should see a juicy target share, with Reynold and Firkser picking up the scraps.

    It would be a surprise to see Henry fail to approach or surpass 300-plus attempts again, but Darryton Evans may be in line forsomereceiving work out of the backfield.

  • Washington Football Team

    Key additions: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, WR Curtis Samuel, WR Adam Humphries, WR Dyami Brown
    Key departures: QB Dwayne Haskins, QB Alex Smith

    Terry McLaurin, J.D McKissic, and Logan Thomas all netted 110-plus targets in 2020. McLaurin seems like he’s the only one who can match his total heading into this season with the addition of Curtis Samuel (100-plus touches in Carolina).

    Last year, Antonio Gibson wasn’t used as a three-down back in Washington. In ’21 we should expect that to change. Gibson was a wide receiver for the majority of his college career at Memphis, and surely in his sophomore season, Washington will trust him to use his entire skillset. McKissic’s astronomical target totalshould regress as a result, but he’s still in play in PPR leagues.

Source