Who will win Euro 2024? Favorites, odds, prediction, expert picks for UEFA winner to lift trophy

By | May 27, 2024

The 2024 European championship takes the field in Germany this summer to mark the midway point in the current World Cup cycle.

With top teams dotting the map all across the continent, there will be some highly anticipated matchups between powerful football nations who will hope to stake their claim as Europe’s top side.

England are considered the favourites this year, seeking their first-ever Euro title, but you only need to go back to July 2021 when Italy won the title to know anything can — and probably will — happen at this competition.

The Azzurri were coming off a failure to qualify for the 2018 World Cup, and would go on to fall short of qualification for the 2022 FIFA tournament as well two years later, proving teams only need to turn it on for one month to have a shot at the trophy.

The Sporting News runs through who could impress and who might disappoint amongst the 24-team field in this year’s European championship hosted by Deutschland.

MORE: England announce preliminary squad for Euro 2024 as Gareth Southgate makes big calls

Odds to win Euro 2024 in Germany

Despite never having won a European championship, England are considered the favourites for this year’s competition, as they feature a host of superstar players in the squad, including Ballon d’Or favourite Jude Bellingham, whose incredible season with Real Madrid has him positioned to compete for the sport’s most prestigious individual award.

France are second-favourites, looking for their first European title in 24 years, having made the semifinals just once since that trophy. Germany are third-favourites playing on home soil, having disappointed at the past few World Cup tournaments and reaching the semifinals just twice since their most recent title in 1996.

Defending champions Italy, who have had a rollercoaster ride over the past decade, are sixth-favourites thanks to their struggles in both Euro and World Cup qualifying in recent years. One nation, Georgia, will make its debut at the finals of a European championship in this competition.

Odds via BetMGM in USA, updated as of May 21, 2024.

Nation Best finish Odds to win Odds to reach final Odds to reach semifinal
England Runners-up (2020) +275 +150 -165
France Winners (2x, last 2000) +350 +175 -140
Germany Winners (3x, last 1996) +500 +225 +110
Spain Winners (3x, last 2012) +800 +350 +150
Portugal Winners (2016) +800 +350 +150
Italy Winners (2x, last 2020) +1600 +750 +300
Netherlands Winners (1988) +1800 +750 +333
Belgium Runners-up (1980) +1800 +750 +333
Croatia Quarterfinals (2x, last 2008) +3300 +1200 +600
Denmark Winners (1992) +3300 +1600 +700
Switzerland Quarterfinals (2020) +5000 +2500 +800
Austria Round of 16 (2020) +5000 +2500 +800
Turkey Semifinals (2008) +5000 +2500 +800
Serbia Runners-up (2x, last 1968) +5000 +2500 +1000
Hungary Semifinals (2x, last 1972) +8000 +4000 +800
Ukraine Quarterfinals (2020) +10,000 +5000 +1000
Scotland Group Stage (3x, last 2020) +10,000 +5000 +1000
Czechia Winners (1976) +10,000 +5000 +1200
Poland Quarterfinals (2016) +10,000 +5000 +1200
Romania Quarterfinals (2016) +15,000 +8000 +1600
Slovenia Group Stage (2000) +20,000 +10,000 +3300
Slovakia Winners (1976)* +30,000 +15,000 +3300
Albania Group Stage (2016) +30,000 +15,000 +4000
Georgia First appearance +50,000 +25,000 +4000

* Slovakia competed as Czechoslovakia until 1994

Euro 2024 group stage odds

At this year’s European championship, there are 24 nations broken up into six groups of four teams each. The top two sides will qualify automatically for the knockout stage, while four third-place finishers will also find their way through via a ranking table.

Because of the ability for three teams to qualify from a given group, you will notice minus odds to qualify for as many as three teams in each group, as over half the third-place finishers will make it through the knockout stage.

Odds via BetMGM in USA, updated as of May 21, 2024.

Group A

Nation Odds to win Odds to advance
Germany -250 -2000
Switzerland +550 -200
Hungary +600 -165
Scotland +800 -150

Germany have a loaded squad with a litany of in-form players, and on home soil, they are in position to dominate a relatively simple group. The Euro 2024 hosts are susceptible to pacey, counter-attacking teams, but the sides in their group do not present that kind of threat, and therefore they should manage to see their way through with ease.

The other teams will battle it out for as many as two qualifying spots, and unfortunately, Scotland may serve as a punching bag in the process. Hungary are a bit of an enigma, as they can both disappoint and surprise on various occasions, but at this tournament relatively close to home, they should make it through as a third-place qualifier.

Prediction: Germany to win group (-250), Switzerland to qualify (-200), Hungary to qualify (-165)

Group B

Nation Odds to win Odds to advance
Spain -130 -1000
Italy +210 -800
Croatia +400 -350
Albania +2500 +275

Spain are a bit underrated in this tournament (more on that later), and despite a difficult group that features both defending champions Italy and giant-killers Croatia, they should manage to top the group. Both those sides will also manage to advance in some capacity, as Albania looks to be in over their heads in this loaded table.

One of those top three teams should manage to see a way through as a third-place qualifier, which will make life extremely difficult on whatever group winner draws them in the Round of 16.

Prediction: Spain to win group (+140), Croatia to qualify (-350), Italy to qualify (-800)

Group C

Nation Odds to win Odds to advance
England -250 -2500
Denmark +350 -300
Serbia +800 -190
Slovenia +1600 +138

England have significant challenges to overcome in this competition relative to their expectations, but they should have few issues with a soft group to begin with. Denmark will also make it through, as neither Serbia nor Slovenia are a huge threat to their position.

It’s certainly possible for Serbia to advance as a third-place finisher, or even in second above Denmark, but Slovenia is not a soft enough pot four team, which is often required for a group to have three sides advance — having one opponent for all three other teams to beat up on can be key towards establishing a high enough third-place table position. Other groups have even muddier waters, however, so there may be just enough places to find a way through.

Prediction: England to win group (-250), Denmark to qualify (-300), Serbia to qualify (-190)

Group D

Nation Odds to win Odds to advance
France -175 -1600
Netherlands +275 -450
Austria +700 -150
Poland +1000 -105

France will be considered by many to be a solid title contender, and the Netherlands also boast a very strong group that could end up on the podium. Both should find themselves in solid qualifying position without too much trouble.

From a third-place perspective, Group D has the same problem as mentioned above in Group C, as there is no bottom-feeder to feast upon. It’s even exacerbated here compared to Group C, as the match between Austria and Poland could very easily finish level, leaving both on the outside looking in.

Prediction: France to win group (-175), Netherlands to qualify (-450)

Group E

Nation Odds to win Odds to advance
Belgium -275 -2000
Ukraine +450 -185
Romania +650 -165
Slovakia +1000 -125

There’s a clear top two sides in this group, as while neither Belgium nor Ukraine will challenge for the tournament title, they should both make their way to the knockout stage.

However, Belgium have been prone to upsets before, while Ukraine are built to withstand pressure, and the latter could find itself atop the standings at the end, even as both advance through to the Round of 16.

Prediction: Ukraine to win group (+450), Belgium to qualify (-2000)

Group F

Nation Odds to win Odds to advance
Portugal -275 -3000
Turkey +450 -350
Czechia +600 -125
Georgia +1200 +175

Even if they don’t look impressive across 90 minutes or more, Portugal have a resolve which often sees them progress further than expected in knockout competitions. With Cristiano Ronaldo playing in his sixth European championship, they should make it through to the knockout stage even if pushed to the brink on occasion by a trio of plucky sides below them.

All three of the other contenders in this group have reason to back themselves for a spot in the Round of 16, but Georgia boast nearly 2/1 odds to qualify. The presence of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia alone gives them hope, but goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili was statistically the best shot-stopper in La Liga this season, and will keep his side in matches they otherwise have little business begin in. Back the underdogs to reach the Round of 16 at solid value.

Prediction: Portugal to win group (-275), Czechia to qualify (-125), Georgia to qualify (+175)

Euro 2024 predictions for UEFA European championship

Prediction: Germany (+500 to win title, +200 to reach final)

Seeking their first European championship in nearly 30 years, Germany have plenty of reason for optimism on home soil. Their biggest ace is playmaker Florian Wirtz, who carried Bayer Leverkusen to an invincible season and is in utterly blistering form. He is a candidate for the tournament’s Golden Ball award, which gives the hosts a big chance to see out the trophy.

Furthermore, they have in-form players at every position. Jonathan Tah and Antonio Rudiger make a fearsome central defensive partnership, Toni Kroos is playing well heading into his football swansong, and even Kai Havertz has reversed his awful club form to prove a quality puzzle piece. There are no holes in this German side, they are playing well under Julian Nagelsmann, and on home soil they should be a major contender for the title. As third-favourites at 5/1 odds, they boast massive value.

Dark Horse: Spain (+800 to win title, +350 to reach final)

It simply feels wrong to call Spain a “dark horse” but boasting 8/1 odds to lift the trophy, that’s exactly what they are. Behind a star-studded England and France, and hosts Germany, Spain are flying quite under the radar in this competition.

Head coach Luis de la Fuente has done well to usher in the next group of young stars, even if it has at times come at a cost of load management. The absence of Gavi in midfield will be a blow, but any team that sports Rodri as its anchor can piece together the rest and come away successfully. Bayer Leverkusen full-back Alex Grimaldo has enjoyed a meteoric rise this season and will prove a threat, and Lamine Yamal will bring his exceptional Barcelona form to the international stage.

They are woefully undervalued at this stage and should be given a much more optimistic look.

Stay away from: England (+275 to win title, +175 to reach final)

It’s quite incredible that England are the betting favourites to win this competition. To put it simply, there are too many holes in this squad to be title contenders.

They are bested by other European nations at multiple positions, including most notably goalkeeper and defence. They have suffered significant injuries along the back line, which has hampered key players such as Luke Shaw, Reece James, Fikayo Tomori, Ben Chilwell, and Tyrone Mings to varying degrees.

The midfield is strong with both Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham considered world-class players, and the attacking trio of Harry Kane, Phil Foden, and Bukayo Saka will be fearsome, especially with Cole Palmer and Jarrod Bowen also in tow, but there are too many issues at the back to be thought of as worth their odds to lift the trophy.