The Knicks and Spurs already played for one trophy this season, and New York walked away with the NBA Cup after defeating San Antonio in Las Vegas. That result alone should be enough to make this Finals matchup feel difficult to predict.
Yet that is not how many observers see it.
As the NBA Finals approach, a surprisingly strong consensus has formed around one side. While New York enters the series chasing its first championship since 1973 and San Antonio is trying to end a 12-year title drought, most predictions are leaning heavily toward the Spurs.
The numbers tell the story.
Among 13 expert picks, 10 selected San Antonio to win the championship while only three picked New York. For a matchup featuring two teams that have survived difficult playoff paths, that gap stands out immediately.
The MVP voting followed almost the exact same pattern.
Victor Wembanyama received 10 Finals MVP selections, while Jalen Brunson earned the remaining three. No other player received support, which suggests many analysts believe the biggest individual battle in this series is already clear.
That confidence in San Antonio did not appear out of nowhere.
The Spurs reached the Finals after defeating Minnesota in six games before surviving a grueling seven-game series against Oklahoma City. Each round presented a different challenge, and each round strengthened the belief that San Antonio can adjust when circumstances change.
At the same time, the predictions do not completely dismiss New York.
Several analysts still expect the series to stretch deep into June, with numerous picks calling for six or seven games. That detail suggests there is plenty of respect for the Knicks despite the lopsided voting totals.
The most interesting part might be that New York already owns a championship victory over San Antonio this season. Even with that result on the board, most experts still landed on the Spurs when asked to make a final choice.
Predictions rarely determine what happens once the ball goes up. They do, however, reveal where confidence exists before the series starts, and right now that confidence appears to be sitting overwhelmingly with San Antonio and Victor Wembanyama.