How can Arsenal win the Premier League title? What Gunners need to beat Man City to 2023 EPL trophy

By | February 21, 2023

Arsenal were knocked off the top of the 2022/23 Premier League table after a 3-1 loss to Manchester City on February 15, which installed defending champions City as the leaders on goal difference.

But there’s still a ton of football left to be played, and Arsenal certainly will feel like they’re still in it despite letting a lead slip away. Arsenal still have 16 matches remaining in the Premier League season – including a vital game against City on April 26 (8pm GMT kickoff),

The best way to calculate what a team needs to mathematically secure the title is by using their “magic number” which gives title-hungry fans a better sense as to what their club needs to clinch the trophy.

MORE: Arsenal odds to win the 2022/23 Premier League title

How many points do Arsenal need to win Premier League title?

The Gunners are level on points with Manchester City, but the Gunners drop to second based on the first tiebreaker: goal difference (+36 vs. +26). 

Arsenal supporters can take hope that they have a game in hand on City to be made up on Wednesday, March 1 when the Gunners host Everton.

Pos Team Points Matches
Next Match
1. Man City 51 23 59 +36 @ NOT, Feb. 18
2. Arsenal 51 22 47 +26 @ AVL, Feb. 18
3. Man United 46 23 38 +10 vs. LEI, Feb. 19
4. Newcastle 41 22 35 +22 vs. LIV, Feb. 18

A “magic number” is often calculated in sports to determine what a team needs to mathematically secure a title. It’s comprised of the combination of total points earned by the team in question and points dropped by their nearest competitor.

For example, if a certain team’s magic number to win a title is 5, that means they could secure the championship with five points won by themselves, or two points won plus three points dropped by their closest opposition.

How to find Arsenal’s ‘magic number’

To calculate a magic number, you take the team with the highest total possible points remaining, and add one to that total. This gives you the amount of points the leaders need to achieve that would make them unreachable by any other club.

At the current moment, with a long remaining fixture list to complete before the end of the season, there’s still a ways to go. Manchester City have 15 matches still to play, which gives them a maximum of 45 possible points to still collect, for a reachable point total of 96.

Arsenal sit on 51 points currently, with 16 matches of their own left to play. Therefore, for Arsenal to eclipse Manchester City’s maximum point total, they require 46 more points to see themselves out of reach at 97 points.

That means Arsenal’s magic number is 46, an accumulation of points gained by the Gunners and dropped by Manchester City (or any other club that finds themselves in a stronger position than City as the season progresses).

So remember, if Arsenal were to win their next match and Manchester City lose their next match, that would count as six points against the magic number.

How can Man City win the 2022/23 Premier League title?

With Arsenal in control of their own destiny, Manchester City need to collect as many points as possible and hope Arsenal lend them a hand by dropping points of their own.

At this current point, Man City sit at the top on the goal difference tiebreaker (+36 to Arsenal’s +26). Should the teams finish level on points, goal differential would decide the Premier League title.

If they are also level on goal differential, goals scored would be the next tiebreaker used to decide the title. Man City have scored 59 goals, while Arsenal have scored 47.

Arsenal, Man City remaining Premier League fixtures

With both Arsenal and Manchester City battling for the Premier League title, the remaining fixture list matters greatly as they both look to push forward in the final weeks.

According to the metrics of analytics website FootyLabs, Arsenal and Man City actually have two of the four easiest fixture lists to navigate for the remainder of this season.

The two will meet one final time in Premier League play on April 26 at the Etihad. Man City beat Arsenal on the Gunners home turf on February 15. That April 26 game could go a long way toward deciding the Premier League title, or at the very least determine whether the chase remains on or ends for good.

Aside from that head-to-head matchup, the only remaining fixtures for either team against any of the Premier League’s top five clubs (Man United, Newcastle, Tottenham) are one game each against Newcastle. Both will also have to face Liverpool.

Arsenal’s game in hand will be played as a rescheduled Matchweek 7 fixture against Everton on March 1, after which Arsenal and Manchester City will be level on games played.

PL Matchweek Arsenal fixtures Man City fixtures
24 Feb. 18 at Aston Villa Feb. 18 at Nott. Forest
25 Feb. 25 at Leicester City Feb. 25 at Bournemouth
7* Mar. 1 vs. Everton  —
26 Mar. 4 vs. Bournemouth Mar. 4 vs. Newcastle
27 Mar. 12 at Fulham Mar. 11 at Crystal Palace
28 Mar. 19 vs. Crystal Palace Mar. 19 vs. West Ham
29 Apr. 1 vs. Leeds United Apr. 1 vs. Liverpool
30 Apr. 8 at Liverpool Apr. 8 at Southampton
31 Apr. 15 at West Ham Apr. 15 vs. Leicester City
32 Apr. 22 vs. Southampton Apr. 22 at Brighton
33 Apr. 26 at Man City Apr. 26 vs. Arsenal
34 Apr. 29 vs. Chelsea Apr. 29 at Fulham
35 May 6 at Newcastle May 6 vs. Leeds United
36 May 13 vs. Brighton May 13 at Everton
37 May 20 at Nott. Forest May 20 vs. Chelsea
38 May 28 vs. Wolves May 28 at Brentford

* Arsenal’s Matchweek 7 fixture vs. Everton was rescheduled from mid-September