Mexico vs. Poland prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for World Cup 2022

By | November 20, 2022

Mexico will have to put their pre-World Cup struggles behind them and push forward into the main event as they begin their adventure in Qatar with a matchup against Robert Lewandowski and Poland.

El Tri have been below standards for some time now, leading to pressure on head coach Gerardo Martino to deliver results at the World Cup in the hope of salvaging his job.

Poland were in the same boat through the summer but managed to lift spirits with a few positive friendly results just before the World Cup, and they could be primed for a positive showing.

These two teams will be battling with Saudi Arabia for the likely second qualifying spot behind expected Group C winners Argentina. Here’s how this critical match could play out.

MORE: Follow all of The Sporting News picks each day through the 2022 FIFA World Cup here

Mexico vs. Poland odds

The bookmakers have utterly no clue who will come out on top in this match. Both Mexico and Poland have near-even odds, and who the slight “favorite” is varies between book.

What the odds do tell us more certainly is that a low-scoring affair is expected, as has been the case for most World Cup matches. The odds are heavily skewed towards the under, which is normal for many games at this event as bookmakers tend to shade towards expecting tense, cagey matches that feature risk-averse sides.

Odds via BetMGM (USA), Sports Interaction (Canada), SkyBet (UK), and Ladbrokes (Australia).

  BetMGM Sports
SkyBet Ladbrokes
Mexico win +170 2.70 7/4 17/10
Draw +210 3.05 2/1 2/1
Poland win +175 2.62 7/4 7/4
Both teams
to score Y / N
+100 / -135 1.94 / 1.68 10/11, 4/5 20/21, 3/4
Over / Under
2.5 goals
+125 / -185 2.38 / 1.52 11/8, 8/15 11/8, 8/15
Mexico -0.5 +155 2.65
Poland +0.5 -225 1.44

Mexico vs. Poland: 3 things to know

Mexico vs. Poland team news

It is unclear what role Mexico striker Raul Jimenez will be ready for at the World Cup, just coming off a hip injury. The Wolves frontman looked sluggish and timid in the warmup friendly against Sweden, and it could be decided he’s not ready to help the team. If so, the central striker will be either Rogelio Funes Mori or Henry Martin.

Otherwise, Mexico are relatively healthy, with just the absence of ‘Tecatito’ Corona to work around. 

Poland are without Jakub Moder and Bartlomiej Dragowski due to long-term injuries, but there are no other known concerns to flag. Robert Lewandowski is in great form in his first year with Barcelona, leading La Liga in goalscoring through the first phase of the season.

Mexico vs Poland key stats

  • Poland emerged victorious in the only World Cup matchup between these two teams by a 3-1 scoreline back in 1978, dooming Mexico to the bottom of Group 2.
  • Mexico have reached, and been eliminated in, the Round of 16 in each of the past seven World Cups.
  • Robert Lewandowski has not scored in three straight international appearances — Poland scored just goal in those three games. He has not gone four straight national-team appearances without a goal since March 2019.

Mexico vs. Poland match facts

  • Date: Tuesday, November 22
  • Kickoff Time: 11:00 am ET / 4:00 pm GMT / 3:00 am AEDT (Wed, Nov. 23)
  • Location: Stadium 974
  • Official: Chris Beath (Australia)

Mexico vs. Poland prediction

  • Moneyline lean: Poland (+175)
  • Against the spread lean: Poland +0.5 (-225)
  • Score prediction: Mexico 1-2 Poland

Given Mexico’s issues up front, without a healthy Raul Jimenez, it’s tough to see them getting enough goals to keep up with Robert Lewandowski and Karol Swiderski.

Mexico will hold the ball enough to create a volume of chances that will give them a way through, but their numerous defensive mistakes will come home to roost against one of the world’s best strikers.

MORE: World Cup 2022 Group C: Schedule, fixtures, times for Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Poland

Mexico vs. Poland: best bet

Given the way Group C is expected to shake out, with Argentina at the top and Saudi Arabia at the bottom, that means this game is of critical importance to both these sides.

Mexico vs. Poland best bet

  • Pick: Poland moneyline
  • Odds: +175 (BetMGM)

The talking point on every El Tri fan’s lips is the striker situation, but to me, the most concerning issue is their porous defense. Conceding twice to a defensive-minded Sweden side just days ago is alarming, especially the first goal, where center-backs just completely lost track of players at the far post.

Those defensive mistakes will be punished en masse against one of the best strikers in the world, who is propped up by an excellent supporting cast including Karol Swiderski, Piotr Zielinski, Arkadiusz Milik, and Krzysztof Piatek.

This tournament will be the end of the road for Gerardo Martino, and it starts with this match.

Mexico vs. Poland prop bet

  • Pick: Half with most goals — 2H
  • Odds: +115 (BetMGM)

Both these teams are second-half sides, and the high stakes of the World Cup should amplify that further.

Dating back to March, the previous nine Poland matches have featured 23 goals, with 18 of those scored in the second half. For Mexico, it’s the same: in their past 10 matches, 16 of the 25 goals were scored in the second half.

At the World Cup, with teams cagey through the first half, neither side will want to take too many risks in the opening 45 minutes, and the crucial goals will be scored after the break.

Mexico vs. Poland prop bet

  • Pick: Both teams to score
  • Odds: +115 (BetMGM)

Poland should have no problems finding the back of the net in this match, as we’ve already predicted.

However, Mexico will also have a good chance to open their World Cup account, even in defeat. The striker position is in question, but Hirving Lozano is a workhorse and Alexis Vega is in good form coming into the tournament. If ‘Tata’ Martino resists the urge to throw a hampered Raul Jimenez out there and instead opts for a more dangerous Rogelio Funes Mori up top, El Tri could make a game of it on the scoresheet.

Mexico vs. Poland flier bet

  • Pick: Lewandowski to score & Poland to win
  • Odds: +320 (FanDuel)

If you want to juice that Poland moneyline at all, adding a Robert Lewandowski goal to the mix is the perfect way.

The Poland superstar is in sensational form at Barcelona, the Champions League slip-up notwithstanding, and given the way he feasts on bottom-half La Liga defenses, it would be sensible to see him take a Mexico defender to task en route to a critical Poland victory.